• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

MBB Game 32: Cuse Again -- ACCT @ The Greensboro Coliseum -- Wednesday Noon - ESPN

Pilchard

Pilchard

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
17,191
Reaction score
6,469
WF waited 30 games to finally play Cuse. Now, the Deacs face the Orange in back to back games. Here is the link to the previous scouting report on the Orange .

On Saturday, WF lost 72-63.

Some game notes:

  • Defense dominated (the game went under by 19 points):
    • In 72 possessions, WF had its worst offensive efficiency rating, .88 (points per possession) since losing at Rutgers on December 17. Rutgers is the #4 defensive team in the country; Syracuse is one of the worst in a power conference (#193 - 12th in the ACC)
    • Cuse didn't have a great offensive game either: 1.005 (ppp), their 5th worst of Cuse's 20 ACC games. WF is not a great defensive team either (#155 - 9th in the ACC)
  • Too many Appleby TOs: 7 TOs; WF gave up 13 steals (18% of WF's offensive possessions resulted in a steal; WF average giving up 9% on the season); got to better passing the ball around the zone)
  • WF shot 67% from two (14 for 21), but a miserable 10 for 39 (25.6%) from three; perhaps a taking almost twice as many threes as twos is not the best offensive plan;
  • As a result of the over-emphasis on threes, WF shot only 6 FTs; Cuse shot 24 FTs
  • Cuse sucked from three too (2-14 - 14%)
  • Cuse grabbed 16 offensive boards (37%); WF only snatched 9 offensive boards (25%); this is just a weak performance on the boards as opponents have killed Cuse on the offensive boards all year
Projections: KP projects a 79-77 WF win in 70 possessions. Torvik projects a 81-76 WF win. For those that play conference tourney trends, teams that lose the regular season finale to a team and then play that same team in the conference tournament opener have a "revenge" edge. That said, given the the analysis below, can't recommend backing our Deacs.

The palpable impact on the loss of Damari Monsanto (get ready for some stark/nauseating numbers):

Unstoppable with ACC's best three point shooter in over a decade:

From December 20 (the home Duke win) through February (the loss at NC State), WF's adjusted offensive rating over a 17 game stretch against ACC teams was an elite 118.1. Of the 363 D1 teams, during that 17 game stretch, WF offense was rated #8 in the country and was essentially tied with Miami for the best offense in the ACC.

Impotent without the ACC's best three point shooter:

Since Monsanto was lost on Feb 22 (three games -- ND, BC, @Cuse -- not exactly elite defensive teams), WF's offensive rating dropped to 95.8 -- #301 in the country (yikes), and get ready for this... DFL in the ACC. Yes, since February 22, every ACC team, including Louisville, FSU and BC have been more efficient on offense than WF (granted its only a 3 game sample, but that is an incredible offensive efficiency drop due to the loss of one player). Hard to argue with the following:

On February 22, WF lost its most important offensive player, and instead of the best ACC offense, WF now has the worst.

Given those numbers, really hard to back WF on Wednesday (and we are intentionally ignoring WF horrific recent ACCT record). Predictably (for anyone paying attention), the loss of Monsanto has led to three easy "under" covers. While its hard to take an under in any game involving no-defense Cuse, if the total is anything close to the mid 150 projections, under has to be the play again. With Damari, WF can outscore every ACC team. Without him, not sure WF can outscore any ACC team. Fearing another early exit for our Deacs.... Gag.
 
Last edited:
Bet the farm on Cuse straight up. We've all seen this movie before.
 
Last edited:
There were a lot of things going against the Deacs on Saturday... the late travel, senior day, road game, etc.

None of those things will be an issue on Wednesday. I mean, we may lose, but I think it'd be because Girard goes on a heater or something like that.
 
Keep cashing the under. This total in Vegas will again be in the 150s.
 
I just feel like Syracuse is the worst possible matchup for us without Monsanto. I worried before the last game that we would settle for a ton of 3s against the zone and obviously that’s exactly what happened.
 
Barring a Childress style run for Appleby, I just don't see it. Maybe it's possible if we get hot, but somebody has to catch fire for 4 straight days, don't know if anyone on the team possess that ability
 
WRS said:
I just feel like Syracuse is the worst possible matchup for us without Monsanto. I worried before the last game that we would settle for a ton of 3s against the zone and obviously that’s exactly what happened.
Click to expand...
Yeah... The Wake fan in me really hopes we find some way to pull out a win or even two... But we just lost to these guys. And they shot 14% from deep with Girard going 1/7 on mostly open looks. They're likely to play better than last time out, and even if we improve a bit we weren't even competitive last time.

Without Monsanto or a 100% Carr, we don't have a single player who can catch the ball at the high post against the zone and confidently turn around and hit the free-throw-line jumper. Nor do we have a big man with any real back-to-the-basket game. So their zone doesn't have to collapse down low OR defend the free throw line, they can just stay in passing lanes and get deflections and pressure our guards.

We need players who can be aggressive and make good decisions to attack the zone, and the only two guys that fit that description are Tyree and Cam. Cam is both in a funk and is a terrible matchup against a zone, so it'll be Tyree vs. Syracuse again. I mean, Syracuse isn't good, so there's certainly a world where Bobi or Lucas get hot from outside, we throw successful lobs to Marsh early and it opens the paint up for Cam... But I just don't see it based on last time out. Lucas is going to struggle, we're going to have to play Daivien so they're going to score, then we'll end up chasing a lead with bad 3's.

Really hoping I'm 100% wrong.
 
Why should anything be different this year? Big friggin' L!
 
Know it has been difficult dealing with the loss of Monsanto and the late season losses. I often think back to how I was feeling when redacted and mannequin were leading the program. It was a feeling of despair and total helplessness. After the end of football with zero traction in basketball it was best to hibernate for the Winter until Spring football returned.
 
We're not playing on a Tuesday so that's encouraging. I agree with others. If we miraculously win over Cuse, Miami will beat us like a rented mule.
 
Basketball ending like football, with absolutely no momentum and best players exiting stage left. Sucks
 
Pilchard said:
Impotent without the ACC's best three point shooter:

Since Monsanto was lost on Feb 22 (three games -- ND, BC, @Cuse -- not exactly elite defensive teams), WF's offensive rating dropped to 95.8 -- #301 in the country (yikes), and get ready for this... DFL in the ACC. Yes, since February 22, every ACC team, including Louisville, FSU and BC have been more efficient on offense than WF (granted its only a 3 game sample, but that is an incredible offensive efficiency drop due to the loss of one player). Hard to argue with the following:

On February 22, WF lost its most important offensive player, and instead of the best ACC offense, WF now has the worst.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth, this team would be DFL in the ACC on offense with a healthy Monsanto and no Appleby too.
 
deacfan123 said:
Basketball ending like football, with absolutely no momentum and best players exiting stage left. Sucks
Click to expand...
We still have some very good players returning in football, and we beat an SEC team in a Florida bowl game. College football and college bball are not that comparable anymore. At one time, making the tournament was semi-equivalent to making a bowl game. That’s not necessarily the case anymore (although it might should be for P5/6 teams) but if we make the NIT and have a good showing then that would probably be equivalent to our bowl win this year.
 
It depends on what happens this weekend. If Clemson or Carolina plays themselves back into the NCAA tournament, and we don't lose to Cuse, I think we can get an NIT bid. If we lose to Cuse, then it probably doesn't matter what else happens in the tournament.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top