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Official 2014 Midterm Election Discussion Thread

If you're going to point to a link sarcastically instead of answering my question, shouldn't that link at least work?

I need to get in the business of publishing unreliable data that would be illegal to actually obtain that supports my opinions. Because bar graph.

Go find the MoJo piece if you care. I don't care. Normally this is where "fuck you I'm not your research assistant" goes.

Just seems lazy to ask for a data source instead of finding it. You're already wasting time on ogboards dot com, might as well do your own work if you value bootstraps so much
 
Go find the MoJo piece if you care. I don't care. Normally this is where "fuck you I'm not your research assistant" goes.

Just seems lazy to ask for a data source instead of finding it. You're already wasting time on ogboards dot com, might as well do your own work if you value bootstraps so much

You're the one making the argument, chief. Sorry about the questions. I should just take your word for it next time. Questions are pesky and bothersome.
 
jhmd, how do you respond to studies that show polls had to stay open later in precincts located in neighborhoods with larger percentages of minorities?
 
1. Being able to contextualize information and studies is a critical part of being an intelligent consumer of information
2. Understanding biases and flaws in methodology is an integral portion of number one.
3. Most people who reject "advanced statistics" (of which this study from above certainly is not) I've generally found are the same people who ask questions like "only 1,432 people were polled for this study is there any way we could trust this to tell us anything about the general population? I didn't think so!"
4. Similarly these are the people who rip on polls and surveys for being off by a few points when it's still either a) within the margin of error or b) due to a problem related in number 2 above. Nate Silver addresses this quite well in this article http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/
5. The number of people who do not do numbers one and two above while making statements close to numbers three and four above generally seem to be older people and skew conservative.

Believe me, I know how stats work. I had the pleasure of several semesters of Gaylord May, and aced both of Dewasthali's Quant I and II classes (and he subsequently wrote me some glowing recommendations). But, I've also had enough life experience to recognize that, except in rare circumstances, the underlying data has significant flaws and/or biases. There are very few black-and-white issues.

And, more importantly, it seems like (and I attribute a lot of this to the rise of fantasy sports) millenials see the stats as the ultimate victory and/or decision maker. If the stats point in one direction, then that is the direction we need to go. That is not the case. Stats can be a helpful tool for the decision maker, but they don't carry any more or less weight than several other factors (experience, timing, applicable subjective climate, etc.). It is rare when the variables associated with the decision at hand line up exactly with those contemplated by the stats. So yeah they can provide a general indication, but it is rare that they make the decision for you.
 
Believe me, I know how stats work. I had the pleasure of several semesters of Gaylord May, and aced both of Dewasthali's Quant I and II classes (and he subsequently wrote me some glowing recommendations). But, I've also had enough life experience to recognize that, except in rare circumstances, the underlying data has significant flaws and/or biases. There are very few black-and-white issues.

And, more importantly, it seems like (and I attribute a lot of this to the rise of fantasy sports) millenials see the stats as the ultimate victory and/or decision maker. If the stats point in one direction, then that is the direction we need to go. That is not the case. Stats can be a helpful tool for the decision maker, but they don't carry any more or less weight than several other factors (experience, timing, applicable subjective climate, etc.). It is rare when the variables associated with the decision at hand line up exactly with those contemplated by the stats. So yeah they can provide a general indication, but it is rare that they make the decision for you.

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Believe me, I know how stats work. I had the pleasure of several semesters of Gaylord May, and aced both of Dewasthali's Quant I and II classes (and he subsequently wrote me some glowing recommendations). But, I've also had enough life experience to recognize that, except in rare circumstances, the underlying data has significant flaws and/or biases. There are very few black-and-white issues.

And, more importantly, it seems like (and I attribute a lot of this to the rise of fantasy sports) millenials see the stats as the ultimate victory and/or decision maker. If the stats point in one direction, then that is the direction we need to go. That is not the case. Stats can be a helpful tool for the decision maker, but they don't carry any more or less weight than several other factors (experience, timing, applicable subjective climate, etc.). It is rare when the variables associated with the decision at hand line up exactly with those contemplated by the stats. So yeah they can provide a general indication, but it is rare that they make the decision for you.

Please refer to points 1 and 2 from my earlier post for a response to everything you've just stated.
 
jhmd, how do you respond to studies that show polls had to stay open later in precincts located in neighborhoods with larger percentages of minorities?

I'm as troubled as you are the some precincts got more hours to stay open than others, but I'm not sure that's what you're getting at. I guess the good news is that the turnout was high enough and that the system was flexible enough to accommodate the needs of the voters.

The persecution complex is strong lately. Early voting, absentee voting, regular election day. Life ain't this hard, guys.
 
I'm as troubled as you are the some precincts got more hours to stay open than others, but I'm not sure that's what you're getting at. I guess the good news is that the turnout was high enough and that the system was flexible enough to accommodate the needs of the voters.

The persecution complex is strong lately. Early voting, absentee voting, regular election day. Life ain't this hard, guys.
All being unnecessarily restricted and/or shortened. Why make voting harder to do? (other than to attempt to suppress the vote, of course)
 
All being unnecessarily restricted and/or shortened. Why make voting harder to do? (other than to attempt to suppress the vote, of course)

This to me is the crux of these policy shits. If your response is, it's still easy enough to vote, then you still didn't address why you wanted to make it more difficult. The only responses that seem to pass logical muster are suppressing key votes or "just because".
 
All being unnecessarily restricted and/or shortened. Why make voting harder to do? (other than to attempt to suppress the vote, of course)

I think the ID issue addresses the issue of security. I'm fully confident that more, secure voting is a better policy than more, unsecure voting or less, secure voting. I personally don't have a problem with early voting being expanded in the context of an ID requirement.

At the same time, I have never missed an election I wanted to vote in in about 20 years. I don't see voting as a particularly difficult task on election day, but understand that early voting is necessary to assist people who travel and don't want to cast an absentee ballot. The argument that people are being persecuted by the existing system (even this year's calendar) is hard to understand. Who do you know that wanted to vote, was eligible, but couldn't? Why do you believe that only Dems uniquely incapable of voting under the current system? I don't believe the current system is unfair or unreasonable, I don't have a problem with expanding the days after the ID requirement hits, but I also don't thin that not expanding the days you can vote unduly impacts Dems more than Pubs. Do you believe that Dems are busier people that Republicans? On what evidence?

Have we reached the point where not accommodating preferences is some form of tyranny? Fomenting the persecution narrative must be good politics, but I don't see how it is an honest accounting of what goes on.
 
There is plenty of evidence that Democrats are uniquely disadvantaged in the current system. It's not a matter of belief.
 
There is plenty of evidence that Democrats are uniquely disadvantaged in the current system. It's not a matter of belief.

[This would be the place where you would supply that evidence.]
 
You've ignored the evidence over the years we've been having this discussion.
 
You've ignored the evidence over the years we've been having this discussion.

So not even a bar graph? I was at least hoping for a bar graph with no links to supporting data.
 
The last bar graph literally had a link that provided where the data came from and was deemed insufficient because the image provided was a picture of the graph rather than an interactive one from the website. You just had to go to the actual website and look at where the data came from but opted to not even do that because it was "Tuffalo's 'argument'" not your own. I don't even care about this specific argument, but please excuse PH for not wanting to post any more information when we've a) had this discussion so many times in the past with evidence presented from both sides where everyone knows what the facts are and b) you aren't even interested enough in engaging beyond the confines of this message board to go get the information directly off a graphic that provides data and presumably provides information on the methodology behind the data.
 
I think the ID issue addresses the issue of security. I'm fully confident that more, secure voting is a better policy than more, unsecure voting or less, secure voting. I personally don't have a problem with early voting being expanded in the context of an ID requirement.

At the same time, I have never missed an election I wanted to vote in in about 20 years. I don't see voting as a particularly difficult task on election day, but understand that early voting is necessary to assist people who travel and don't want to cast an absentee ballot. The argument that people are being persecuted by the existing system (even this year's calendar) is hard to understand. Who do you know that wanted to vote, was eligible, but couldn't? Why do you believe that only Dems uniquely incapable of voting under the current system? I don't believe the current system is unfair or unreasonable, I don't have a problem with expanding the days after the ID requirement hits, but I also don't thin that not expanding the days you can vote unduly impacts Dems more than Pubs. Do you believe that Dems are busier people that Republicans? On what evidence?

Have we reached the point where not accommodating preferences is some form of tyranny? Fomenting the persecution narrative must be good politics, but I don't see how it is an honest accounting of what goes on.

I want more people to vote. Period. Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians. Green Party folks. Independents. Etc etc etc. For the record, you brought up party affiliation, not me. (I got pissed at Gore for challenging votes from military personnel back in 2000. All votes should have been counted.)

The life experiences of you and me aren't really relevant here since we've both been lucky to be born as white males in middle income homes (or above). I got a car when I turned 16. Transportation has always been easy for me and most of the people I know on a personal level. That doesn't mean that there aren't people out there that don't have a car so have never needed a driver's license or ID. These people include elderly folks that have voted their whole lives without the need for an ID, so now all the sudden this is thrown onto them and you wonder why they would find it difficult? Have some damn sympathy for other people, for fuck's sake.

What was not secure about voting until recently when these ID laws started to pop up out of nowhere? So that point of yours is just a red herring.

A democracy/republic is based on the people voting for their representatives and statutes. Why any democratic nation would try to make voting more difficult is completely beyond me. When we have such appalling voter turnout percentages already, why would anyone want to make more people disinterested in the process? It's shameful, deceitful, and speaks to those people's morals -- no matter what bullshit excuse they try to pass off as a reason. Such as voting wasn't "secure" before these fabricated ID laws.
 
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