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Official 2022-23 College Basketball Thread: UCONN - One Shining Moment

Highland Deac said:
UNC has gone from preseason #1 to a genuine bubble team. Has any #1 preseason pick not at least made the NCAA tournament?
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I don’t know but we should beat them Tuesday so someone will do some more research into this.
 
ConnorEl said:
F ‘em both.

Too bad they can’t both lose.
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Yeah, that game was being hyped on ESPN all week - way too much hype for a battle of unranked teams. The SMC/Gonzaga game was the much better night game.
 
Loved the dunkfest blowout by Miami last night. Poplar's dunk with 1:00 remaining was sick. He should have made that DeAndre Jordan eeewwwww stank face afterwards. Terrance Oglesby, that is how you dunk on Duke.
 
The batted ball pass from (I think) Miller for a wide open dunk was siiiiick.

Duke is just a soft, soft basketball team.
 
What will it take for us to get back on the bubble?

We should win over Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Boston College (all at home). All are Quad 4 games, so winning those won't help at all, and losing would likely kill our chances.

Right now, Duke is barely a Quad 1 win (NET 29, cutoff is top 30), and Wisconsin has fallen into a Quad 2 win (NET 77, cutoff is top 75). Miami and NC State are Quad 1 games, and UNC and Syracuse are Quad 2 games.

I think we get back in the conversation with three Quad 1 wins - meaning Miami and NC State (or splitting if Wisconsin ends the season strong).

If we finish 6-1, we will likely be a 5 or 6 seed in the ACCT, meaning our Wednesday opponent would not be a quality win. We would have 22 wins, 13 in the ACC, get to the Quarters in the ACCT, have a stronger schedule than last year, and have no bad losses, but we could potentially only have one Quad 1 win on our resume (the Miami/NC State win if Duke falls out of top 30 and Wisconsin doesn't get back in).

Do we really need 8 wins to have a chance?
 
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Hard to see the numbers working in favor of 8 ACC bids. So, WF needs to steal bids from other teams in the conference. To me, the loss at Pitt was the biggest kick in the balls as WF wins that game if it makes FTs. That would've been a road win over another ACC team fighting for a bid, and WF/Pitt only play once. WF wins that game and Pitt is closer to the bubbe; since that loss, Pitt also beat Miami and won at UNC; so, barring an absolute collapse, Pitt is getting in.

In addition to winning tonight (which helps WF, but also helps push UNC toward the bubble -- they have a lot of losable games coming up), WF is going to need at least one super impressive road win (Miami or NC State). WF also probably needs to win at Cuse (who is currently projected to finish in a tie with WF in the ACC standings). Tough, but not impossible.
 
WFUWaldo said:
What will it take for us to get back on the bubble?

We should win over Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Boston College (all at home). All are Quad 4 games, so winning those won't help at all, and losing would likely kill our chances.

Right now, Duke is barely a Quad 1 win (NET 29, cutoff is top 30), and Wisconsin has fallen into a Quad 2 win (NET 77, cutoff is top 75). Miami and NC State are Quad 1 games, and UNC and Syracuse are Quad 2 games.

I think we get back in the conversation with three Quad 1 wins - meaning Miami and NC State (or splitting if Wisconsin ends the season strong).

If we finish 6-1, we will likely be a 5 or 6 seed in the ACCT, meaning our Wednesday opponent would not be a quality win. We would have 26 wins, which seems inconceivable that we would be left-out, particularly with a stronger schedule than last year, but we could potentially only have one Quad 1 win on our resume (the Miami/NC State win if Duke falls out of top 30 and Wisconsin doesn't get back in).

Do we really need 8 wins to have a chance?
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A 6-1 finish gets us to 21-10, plus whatever we get in the ACC tourney. To get to 26 we’d need to win out, including the ACC tournament from a 5 seed.
 
Haros said:
A 6-1 finish gets us to 21-10, plus whatever we get in the ACC tourney. To get to 26 we’d need to win out, including the ACC tournament from a 5 seed.
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My bad, double counted some wins. From Chicago where we get to vote twice.
 
Pilchard said:
Hard to see the numbers working in favor of 8 ACC bids. So, WF needs to steal bids from other teams in the conference. To me, the loss at Pitt was the biggest kick in the balls as WF wins that game if it makes FTs. That would've been a road win over another ACC team fighting for a bid, and WF/Pitt only play once. WF wins that game and Pitt is closer to the bubbe; since that loss, Pitt also beat Miami and won at UNC; so, barring an absolute collapse, Pitt is getting in.

In addition to winning tonight (which helps WF, but also helps push UNC toward the bubble -- they have a lot of losable games coming up), WF is going to need at least one super impressive road win (Miami or NC State). WF also probably needs to win at Cuse (who is currently projected to finish in a tie with WF in the ACC standings). Tough, but not impossible.
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and then, after winning at Cuse for the first time in program history, WF will need to turn around and win their ACC tournament opener, likely against - Cuse. (could also be VT or UNC depending on how everything else shakes out).
 
Torvik's current projection for NCAA bids from the ACC

Virginia
100.0%​
Miami
99.7%​
Duke
95.0%​
NC State
91.1%​
UNC
69.7%​
Pitt
46.4%​
VT
43.4%​
Clemson
17.4%​
Wake
6.3%​
Cuse
0.5%​
 
Splitting hairs, but the Pitt loss felt like a totally wasted opportunity... The game that felt like a literal foot into my ballsack was at home against NCSU.

But they both sucked.
 
Clemson is 10-3 in the ACC in first place, swept VT (and projected to finish 14-6) and the Tigers have a 17% chance for bid, while VT is 4-8 and is projected to finish 10-10 has a 43% chance...

Duke and UNC may have well have a 100% probability next to their names. The NCAAT isn't leaving out either one.
 
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