TimmyClutch
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His ability to allude authorities is going to hurt his draft stock. Teams want dual threat QBs these days.
The Athletic studied the careers of the top 50 high school quarterbacks who signed with FBS programs in the recruiting classes of 2017 through 2020. More than 70 percent have transferred during their time in college.
Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers.
Three key changes occurred over the past three years to accelerate the trend. The extra year of eligibility every player was given for 2020 has extended the college careers of these quarterbacks. The one-time transfer rule went into effect in 2021. And then came NIL. All of those factors help incentivize the decision to transfer.
If you’re a top-50 QB recruit who’s not getting on the field in your first two years, you’re probably ready to enter the portal and restart your career elsewhere. But among these 2017-2020 recruits, we’ve actually seen more QBs — 47 of them — exit at the end of Year 3. More than one-third already had their degree and left as grad transfers. These days, you’re rarely ever going to see a top-50 recruit stick around and settle for the role of career backup. Of the 70 QBs who didn’t start a game in their first three years, 97 percent transferred.
In fact, Georgia’s Carson Beck is the only quarterback on this list of 168 who did not start a game in his first three years and has not transferred. He’s hoping to succeed Stetson Bennett, win the job and lead the defending national champs as a redshirt junior in 2023. And if that doesn’t work out? There are plenty of other schools where he can play.
In the recruiting classes of 2017-2020, a total of 31 quarterbacks finished as top-100 recruits in the 247Sports Composite rankings. Eight of them ended up on the fast track to the NFL and played three college seasons before going pro: Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Sam Howell, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Tanner McKee. Five of them became Heisman finalists. You can certainly make a case for those players being worth top dollar. But that’s eight out of 31. Only two others — Matt Corral and Dorian Thompson-Robinson — have developed into all-conference selections.
What we can learn from the recruiting classes of 2017-2020 so far is, if you’re investing in a top-100 quarterback recruit right now, you need to understand the probability that he’ll finish his career at your school is 35 percent. There’s a 61 percent chance he’ll become your starting QB for at least one full season, which is encouraging. But even if that comes true, there’s still a 47 percent chance he’ll end up in the portal during his career. And out of all 31 top-100 recruits, only 23 percent developed into all-conference players for their first school.
But here’s the problem with those percentages: They’re probably too high. There’s still plenty of time for these highly rated quarterbacks to transfer or transfer again. And if you look ahead to the class of 2021, the early results look ominous.
We left the 2021 recruits out of this study because it felt too early to judge them. They’ve only been in college for two years. But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10: Ewers, Williams, Sam Huard, Jake Garcia and Jaxson Dart. Many more could enter the portal in May if spring competitions don’t go their way.
Great stuff. Interesting that WF must be one of the few programs that has not accepted a QB through the transfer portal. Sounds like WF has not even offered a transfer portal QB.
On a somewhat related point, heard that NFL scouts are grousing about the impact of NIL on draft eligible QBs in the upcoming draft class. Apparently, in a typical NFL draft, after the first round QBs, there are still a ton of QBs that go in the later rounds or are free agents (e.g., Brock Purdy). Because of NIL deals offered by colleges to current 4th, 5th and 6th year QBs (e.g., Hartman, Spencer Rattler, Spencer Sanders, JT Daniels, Jack Plummer), there is no QB depth in the current NFL draft class. Likely to be a record low number of QBs drafted or signed as NFL FA after the obvious first round guys (Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson). It's the effect of college players (particularly QBs) able to make more money playing college football than trying to make the NFL as a late round pick or a FA.
And this is most likely a one year blip as some guys use their Covid year of extra eligibility. Should straighten out as the Covid year guys finally run out of eligibility.Of all the problems for a team to have, not being able to draft the next Will Grier in the 3rd Round has to be pretty low.
Quit trying to draw attention away from the fact that Georgia is an out of control program. Car accident deaths of a player and tutor at 3 a.m., false imprisonment charges for another player, QB in the drunk tank. University of Florida under Urban 2.0.Of all the problems for a team to have, not being able to draft the next Will Grier in the 3rd Round has to be pretty low.
Nah they’ll never hire someone that innovative. Probably a Stone Age Big 10 coordinator.Ruggiero to ND?
Just kidding.... I hope.