Deaconblue
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She's getting primaried by Palin if she stays R. If she switches to Independent if GA is split, it's 50-49 R and McConnell is still majority leader. Why not go a step further?
Murkowski's window of opportunity to leave the republicans and organize with the democrats doesn't become meaningful until two things happen:
1. Democratic Party wins at least one of Georgia's Senate seats.
2. California governor appoints a replacement for Kamala Harris.
If the Georgia Senate elections split, the Senate will be 51/49. (For this discussion, Bernie Sanders counts as a D.) From whenever Harris resigns until her successor is appointed, it will be 51/48. Only after January 20 and the appointment of Harris' successor would a switch to independent give Murkowski any leverage.
50-49-1, with VP Kamala Harris breaking any tie votes.
I expect Harris to resign before January to give her successor a few days seniority over the other newly elected Senators.
ETA: Most probably, Harris resigns shortly after the electoral college meets Dec 5 and officially declares her elected vice president. That way her successor could be appointed and sworn in before the current Congress adjourns.
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