Based on what? That doesn't make any sense geographically
Process of elimination.
Alabama to the CFP. Georgia and Auburn to the New Year’s Six Bowls.
The Columbia newspaper reported on November 20 that “conference insiders” believe that the Citrus Bowl will select Mississippi State.
The would leave five teams: South Carolina, LSU, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Mizzou.
The Jacksonville paper reported that the Taxslayer Bowl has narrowed its focus to South Carolina and LSU. But the Columbia newspaper believes that the Outback Bowl is more likely for South Carolina. So I put South Carolina in the Outback Bowl and LSU in the Taxslayer. But I also read that LSU is pushing for the Outback, so maybe those two are flip-flopped.
That leaves Kentucky, Texas A&M and Mizzou.
I believe that the Belk Bowl and Kentucky want no part of each other. That’s because the Belk Bowl is scheduled to kickoff at the exact same time as the UK-Louisville basketball game. The Music City Bowl (also the same day as UK-UL basketball, but at least a different time) or Liberty Bowl are the more likely destinations for Kentucky.
That leaves Texas A&M and Mizzou, and three open bowl slots: the Texas Bowl, Belk Bowl and either the Liberty or Music City (whichever doesn’t take Kentucky).
Texas A&M played in the Texas Bowl recently. Also that bowl might get Texas, and the Longhorns are reportedly opposed to the idea of rekindling their rivalry with Texas A&M. Texas A&M went to the Liberty in 2014. This article specifically mentions the Belk Bowl as a potential destination for the Aggies (it's actually the only potential destination mentioned):
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/aggies/article/Texas-A-M-maintaining-focus-amid-speculation-12370137.php
It’s worth noting that the SEC will not have enough teams to fill all of the bowls in this tier. So it’s possible that the Belk Bowl won’t get an SEC team at all. But I think it’s more likely that the Liberty Bowl is the one that gets shortchanged.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that a school like Mississippi State or South Carolina won’t end up at the Belk Bowl. It’s certainly possible. I’m just saying that Texas A&M and Mizzou are the most likely teams heading into the weekend.