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Saudi World Golf Tour 2022/2023 Thread

I don't think this course sets up well for Smith, but he's talented as hell, so I think he can overcome that and still win or at least top ten it.

I actually think DJ is one of the better shots from LIV aside from Brooks.
 
I will have some Open plays, but don't like playing the Scottish Open or the Open that much.

I know this is crazy, but I have already made good DFS money in the last two times that Reifers Monday qualified by including him in DFS lineups as he always rated at the bottom and no one plays him; having a bottom rated guy make the cut is how you win DFS. I will be on him again at the Barracuda. I will also take Reifers in top 20s and top 30s. He has a history there. Knowing about a guy like Reifers, when really no one else is paying attention is a rare instance when you can get a betting and/or DFS edge.
I also like Ashkay Bhatia in the Barracuda. He finished really well last week, and can score.

In the Open, I am taking Rahm juiced to 16 to 1. Rory and Scottie have been better lately, but I'm essentially getting double the odds on a player that has won more this year. A Spaniard won Wimbledon, maybe Spain will win back to backs in the UK.

Also on Morikawa at 35 to 1, and Lowry 40 to 1. There's a chance the weather could get awful, and that could help Lowry, who already won one Open in the slop. Taking a long shot on Bryson at 65 to 1. He's been playing well in the majors, driving it incredibly well which is important at the Renaissance. The thing is, if Bryson is in it late, he will probably wilt. Will probably pull the trigger on Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark also.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I don't think this course sets up well for Smith, but he's talented as hell, so I think he can overcome that and still win or at least top ten it.

I actually think DJ is one of the better shots from LIV aside from Brooks.
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Yeah if Cam is striking it off the tee he's gonna be fine but I think he's someone who the internal OB is going to punish a couple times
 
Pilchard said:
I will have some Open plays, but don't like playing the Scottish Open or the Open that much.

I know this is crazy, but I have already made good DFS money in the last two times that Reifers Monday qualified by including him in DFS lineups as he always rated at the bottom and no one plays him; having a bottom rated guy make the cut is how you win DFS. I will be on him again at the Barracuda. I will also take Reifers in top 20s and top 30s. He has a history there. Knowing about a guy like Reifers, when really no one else is paying attention is a rare instance when you can get a betting and/or DFS edge.
I also like Ashkay Bhatia in the Barracuda. He finished really well last week, and can score.

In the Open, I am taking Rahm juiced to 16 to 1. Rory and Scottie have been better lately, but I'm essentially getting double the odds on a player that has won more this year. A Spaniard won Wimbledon, maybe Spain will win back to backs in the UK.

Also on Morikawa at 35 to 1, and Lowry 40 to 1. There's a chance the weather could get awful, and that could help Lowry, who already won one Open in the slop. Taking a long shot on Bryson at 65 to 1. He's been playing well in the majors, driving it incredibly well which is important at the Renaissance. The thing is, if Bryson is in it late, he will probably wilt. Will probably pull the trigger on Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark also.
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Yeah I just took Rory for coverage on the top two odds guys. Scottie has like a dozen straight top 12 finishes or something silly and I think Rory has been top 10 in 6 straight events. Scottie is having one of the best ball striking seasons ever so if he gets putts to fall he can easily rattle off a win by a few shots. I wouldn't have taken either just at 7-1 but with the +300 boost I figured just covering my ass a little on one of them wasn't the end of the world.

Trying to pick a couple guys in the +1800 to +3500 region who will end up winning is just throwing darts. Tons of talent and odds slightly worse than they would be if Rory and Scottie weren't in absurd form. It's going to be a fun tournament.

Saw a stat yesterday that the winner in the last 10 Opens has been in the top 18 after the first round, which is interesting given the role wave advantages/weather can play in the Open compared to other tournaments.
 
FWIW, the weather for Thu-Sun is low to mid 60s each day with passing showers here and there. So it'll be soft but shouldn't have stoppages. That's prime Rory weather.
 
Will Hartman from Charlotte Catholic with a top 4 finish today to secure US Amateur and US Juniors this year. We need to see him in gold and black. #1 in 2025.

Kyle Haas with a couple good rounds as well but some of these kids played great today.
 
Fayettenam said:
Will Hartman from Charlotte Catholic with a top 4 finish today to secure US Amateur and US Juniors this year. We need to see him in gold and black. #1 in 2025.

Kyle Haas with a couple good rounds as well but some of these kids played great today.
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The course he qualified at (Club at 12 Oaks) is a tough one, I've played it about 15 times over the years, and have decided I'm never going to voluntarily enter a qualifier out there, just too many potential "blow-up" holes lurking if you are slightly off your game. Love playing match play out there, however.

The four qualifiers at that site today are 20, 16, 19, and 18 years old....and that is precisely why I stick to the mid-am stuff most of the time!
 
uncaboref said:
The course he qualified at (Club at 12 Oaks) is a tough one, I've played it about 15 times over the years, and have decided I'm never going to voluntarily enter a qualifier out there, just too many potential "blow-up" holes lurking if you are slightly off your game. Love playing match play out there, however.

The four qualifiers at that site today are 20, 16, 19, and 18 years old....and that is precisely why I stick to the mid-am stuff most of the time!
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God I hate that fucking course.
 
Kudos to the (sick humor of the) R&A for pairing Koepka and Cantlay in Rounds 1 and 2 this week, I chuckled when I saw that pairing today.
 
DCDeac said:
So hard to believe Scheffler could have this kind of season without a major win. Soft flat greens this week, my money is on him despite the terrible odds.
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Yeah saw a chart about his ball striking (strokes gained tee to green) relative to other golfers over the last year and he’s just miles ahead - basically broke the x axis of the graph. Putting well below the average line based on where he “should be.”

I’ll probably regret not having anything on him but again didn’t wanna double up both Rory and Scottie with awful odds.

I did add Harman 125-1, Bradley 100-1, and Cantlay 22-1 this morning. Harman was 125-1 on MGM and 90-1 on DK lol
 
Love Harman, I’ll definitely be on him. I screwed up big time by never picking him in my survivor pool. Also leaning Hovland and DJ but will wait until tonight and a better weather forecast to throw out final bets. Plus I’m stuck in a no-gambling state for work until tonight anyway.
 
I believe there’s a high premium on guys who excel in hitting fairways and ball striking from 175-225 out. With the much discussed internal OB on several holes plus the punitive nature of finding a fairway bunker (sounds like you mostly just have to pitch out if you find one), guys who consistently find the fairway even if they’re not big hitters should be a great play.

Henley leads the PGA in fairways %, cantlay is 5th, and Collin is 11th. Rahm is top 10 in distance from the flag 175-200 and in 200-225 so he’s gonna be around if he keeps it in the fairway off the tee. Cantlay and Collin are both excellent ball strikers proximity wise as well. Double edged sword for the cantlay and Collins of the world is they’re going off at worse odds than they normally would because of how good Rory and Scottie have been. So better numbers but tall task to get past both
 
Scottie has 18 straight top 12 finishes and over that period:

2 wins
7 straight top 5s
16 top 10s
8 events where he has lost strokes to the field putting.

One of the better overall seasons you’ll ever see
 
Not sure how long golf analytics have been around, but the analytic gurus say that Sheffler's 2023 season is the best ball striking season of any golfer ever by a huge margin, as in the difference between Sheffler and #2 is like the difference between #2 and #75. Putting however has been not so good.
 
Pilchard said:
Not sure how long golf analytics have been around, but the analytic gurus say that Sheffler's 2023 season is the best ball striking season of any golfer ever by a huge margin, as in the difference between Sheffler and #2 is like the difference between #2 and #75. Putting however has been not so good.
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Yeah tee to green Scottie is gaining 3.2 strokes per round over the last six months. Rory is second on tour at 2.12 strokes per round and Cantlay is the only other person above 2 strokes a round on tour.

He leads the tour in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach and is only behind Brendon Todd in strokes gained around the green. He is losing strokes putting per round lol.
 
And historically, he's not a bad putter. And it's not like he's leaving his approach putts short like Finau used to do on weekends. It looks like he's rolling it well, but he's just narrowly missing. He'd be quite the deserving winner this week if he can pull it off.
 
cville deac said:
And historically, he's not a bad putter. And it's not like he's leaving his approach putts short like Finau used to do on weekends. It looks like he's rolling it well, but he's just narrowly missing. He'd be quite the deserving winner this week if he can pull it off.
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He's never really been a GOOD putter relative to tour. In a rolling 100 round average dating back to the beginning of 2021, he's only been roughly even with the 50th ranked golfer benchmark in putting for a small stretch. Most of the time he's even been below the top 100 mark. Looks like the best he's been over a 100 round stretch is +.3 shots gained per round which...isn't very good at all for the top player in the world.

If he were just consistently a top 25-50 putter on tour he'd probably have 5+ more wins over the last couple years alone.
 
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