According to a 2014 article by Peter H. Gleick of the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, entitled “Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria,” in an American Meteorological Society journal, a crop-withering drought that started in 1998 was an underlying trigger of the economic upheaval and social unrest that eventually morphed into a no-holds-barred civil war of hellish proportions. Writes Gleick:
“There is a long history of conflicts over water in [North Africa and the Middle East] because of the natural water scarcity, the early development of irrigated agriculture, and complex religious and ethnic diversity.”
Crop failure caused by Syria’s worst drought in hundreds of years forced millions of destitute farming families and other rural residents to migrate to the country’s urban areas, resulting in what the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called a “severe social crisis.” These multitudes of vulnerable, displaced persons became what amounted to social tinder or fuel in the eventual conflagration that consumed Syria.
Syria’s population explosion in the latter 20th century was also extremely destabilizing and contributed to the catastrophe. The population exploded from a mere three million in 1950 to more than 22 million in 2012. With this increase in the number of water consumers, the country’s total per capita renewable water availability plummeted by nearly 90 percent, from 5,500 cubic meters per year to under 760, to a condition of absolute water scarcity.
In a 2010 Reuter’s article entitled, “Syria grapples with surging population,” written before the outbreak of the social strife and civil war, Reuter’s correspondent Alistair Lyon described one taxi driver in Damascus with two wives and nine children who planned to marry a third wife soon. He said that Allah would choose how many children he had and that he had no intention of interfering with Allah’s prerogative by using contraceptives.
Traditional attitudes like these toward preferred family size and family planning may have been appropriate at a time when infant mortality rates were high, but as modern Western medicines (antibiotics, vaccines, etc.) became available in the latter 20th century, sharply reducing the death rate, one logical outcome was that population growth surged. And this surging population entailed myriad environmental, economic and social consequences – stiffening competition for diminishing resources; increasing traffic, air and water pollution; huge classroom sizes and substandard education; unemployment; overburdened health care, social services and utilities, and so forth.
Back in 2010, when Syria still had a future that was a mix of promise and peril – just before the bottom fell out – Nabil Sukkar, a Syrian economist formerly with the World Bank, told Reuter’s:
“We have a population problem, no question. Unless we cope with it, it could be a burden on our development.”