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Wake Forest Football Recruiting

Deaconblue said:
Good news that all the expected letters are in.

A little disappointing that Wake isn't expecting any letters from the Shrine Game signing ceremony at 1 PM. Also sounds like no pleasant surprises at this time.
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Cooley is at the Shrine Bowl.
 
in the last three years, total defensive ranks are 79, 102, and 77

I'm not arguing for or against rankings, just that the idea that Clawson has "earned a pass" hasn't borne out on the defensive side of the ball

I'm a huge fan and think he's a perfect fit for the program, but let's pump the brakes on his recruiting being above reproach
 
A sports agent from Statesville (who I bumped into at a restaurant at the beach) told me Clawson is respected but not well liked by high school coaches and our players. I was shocked to hear this and the guy likely has had a conflict with Clawson. He did say he reps a few ex-WFU players. Take it for what it is worth, but he says it hurts us in recruiting.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
in the last three years, total defensive ranks are 79, 102, and 77

I'm not arguing for or against rankings, just that the idea that Clawson has "earned a pass" hasn't borne out on the defensive side of the ball

I'm a huge fan and think he's a perfect fit for the program, but let's pump the brakes on his recruiting being above reproach
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An average defensive ranking of 86. And the three years before that Clawson's defenses were ranked 24, 43, and 62 (an average of 30), with the exact same recruiting rankings. Outside of 5 stars, the football recruiting rankings make no difference.
 
There’s only what 25-30 5-star players in each class? 4-stars matter too.

The big issue is that recruiting rankings are pretty risk adverse. Only a small percentage are rated 4 or 5 stars. The numerical ratings are tough to translate to the field. What’s an 86 vs. 88 QB mean for winning games?

In rival news, FSU flipped a USF 3-star QB soon after Norvell was announced. Today they flipped a 4-star QB who committed to Louisville.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
so the guys he didn't recruit out-performed the guys he did?
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Nope, Clawson recruited a good number of the defensive players on our best defense (2016). I think it makes a great argument for coaching - Elko >>> Sawvel.
 
I can't believe it's almost 2020 and some people still want to argue that recruiting rankings don't matter, or we wouldn't prefer more 4 star rated players. Are they the end all be all in determining program success? Of course not. But they have a huge correlation.
 
Rafi said:
Why was our defense ranked #24 in 2016? The recruiting rankings haven't changed much at all (if anything, they were lower back then).

In football, there is very, very little correlation with recruiting rankings and performance, outside of the 5 star players. Over the past 5 years, the average 247 class rankings are FSU 8.4, UNC 27.8, and Wake Forest 59.6. You can also look at the rankings of only the Wake players - there's just no correlation between rankings and production. Dortch was a 2 star, Walker was our lowest rated running back, Freudenthal was a 0 star - it just goes on and on.
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How many national championships do you think Saban and Dabo would have won with our recruiting classes over the past 5-10 years? How many playoff appearances?
 
wfu22fan said:
A sports agent from Statesville (who I bumped into at a restaurant at the beach) told me Clawson is respected but not well liked by high school coaches and our players. I was shocked to hear this and the guy likely has had a conflict with Clawson. He did say he reps a few ex-WFU players. Take it for what it is worth, but he says it hurts us in recruiting.
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I can see it. I like Clawson because he’s a stable caretaker of my favorite football program. He’s not a big personality and he doesn’t draw much media attention even for winning. If he was at another program, I probably wouldn’t have much of an opinion on him one way or the other.
 
tigerswood said:
I can't believe it's almost 2020 and some people still want to argue that recruiting rankings don't matter, or we wouldn't prefer more 4 star rated players. Are they the end all be all in determining program success? Of course not. But they have a huge correlation.
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They don't correlate well at all for football, especially outside of the top 10 programs. Run the 247 rankings for Wake players against those that are drafted, earn all ACC honors, start, and those that flame out. They just don't match up.
 
Rafi said:
They don't correlate well at all for football, especially outside of the top 10 programs. Run the 247 rankings for Wake players against those that are drafted, earn all ACC honors, start, and those that flame out. They just don't match up.
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Maybe that's why those 4-star players ended up at Wake.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
How many national championships do you think Saban and Dabo would have won with our recruiting classes over the past 5-10 years? How many playoff appearances?
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Just Saban and Dabo, or their entire coaching/administration staffs? Will you also throw in their facilities, stadium, and fanbases? I think if you sent Wake's entire team to Bama or Clemson, they would probably win 1-2 games more per year, so 8-10 win seasons recently. I don't think they would make the playoffs. But keep in mind Wake's average class ranking is about 60. So, of course there is some importance in rankings (as I have acknowledged in this thread), and there is a big difference between the #1-2 and #60 class, but I don't think there is much difference at all between the #30 and #60 class.
 
look, I'm not tryna shit on the kids or Clawson, but I don't know how you could watch the games this year and think we had satisfactory talent on D, especially at LB
 
Rafi said:
They don't correlate well at all for football, especially outside of the top 10 programs. Run the 247 rankings for Wake players against those that are drafted, earn all ACC honors, start, and those that flame out. They just don't match up.
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Team's with higher ranked classes usually perform better than teams with lower ranked classes. That's not really debatable. The fact that Wake's elite players haven't necessarily been our highest ranked, is an interesting data point, but once you get below the tier of 4 star recruits, that's when it really becomes more of a crapshoot, so it's not that surprising.

See the below article and graph for reference. Sure it's not a linear correlation, and there are outliers (Wisconsin for example), but there's absolutely a strong correlation.

https://watchstadium.com/news/analyzing-college-footballs-relationship-between-recruiting-class-rankings-and-wins-07-01-2019/
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
there's a reason we had the #79 defense in the country last year and it wasn't all scheme
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Wow, Juice and I agree on something... I like Clawson a lot, but let's not pretend we have anywhere close to the same talent as the top ACC programs. Clawson has to find smart, hard working players who can make up for lack of 4/5 star size/speed/skill. And good coaches to work with them.
 
PhDeac said:
Maybe that's why those 4-star players ended up at Wake.
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Per 247, we only have four 4 stars all time (Greene, Josh Adams, Groulx, and AJ Marshall). That's a very small sample size and hard to know what to make of it. But if you look at the top 20 or so Wake recruits of all time per rankings, you'll see very few all ACC players. But then scroll down to the bottom - Chris Givens is our 4th worst recruit on the list, followed by 8th worst Stanley Arnoux, and shortly after that by Jessie Bates and Boogie Basham. https://247sports.com/college/wake-forest/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruits/
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
look, I'm not tryna shit on the kids or Clawson, but I don't know how you could watch the games this year and think we had satisfactory talent on D, especially at LB
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I completely agree. We didn't have the talent that we needed on the defensive side. But I don't think that matches with recruiting rankings. In 2015 our top ranked linebacker was Chris Calhoun (not Strnad). In 2017, 3 of our top 6 recruits were linebackers (Burley, Monroe, and Taylor).
 
tigerswood said:
Team's with higher ranked classes usually perform better than teams with lower ranked classes. That's not really debatable. The fact that Wake's elite players haven't necessarily been our highest ranked, is an interesting data point, but once you get below the tier of 4 star recruits, that's when it really becomes more of a crapshoot, so it's not that surprising.

See the below article and graph for reference. Sure it's not a linear correlation, and there are outliers (Wisconsin for example), but there's absolutely a strong correlation.

https://watchstadium.com/news/analyzing-college-footballs-relationship-between-recruiting-class-rankings-and-wins-07-01-2019/
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I essentially agree with this, and we are basically saying the same thing - anything in the middle is a total crap shoot. If you look at the figure you linked, take out the top 5 programs (and the bottom 4 if you want), and the middle is a blob with essentially no correlation.
 
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