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WF MBB Game 18: Deacs at BC: Saturday 8 pm: ESPN2

didn’t look closely but the washington st example is a pretty classic example of a team that is underrated by the “eye test” because of how few home games they have played.

none of the ratings systems are perfect of course, but the exact same methodology that said the acc was the strongest basketball conference in the 00s (and presumably the 90s) says it’s the weakest today.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
didn’t look closely but the washington st example is a pretty classic example of a team that is underrated by the “eye test” because of how few home games they have played.

none of the ratings systems are perfect of course, but the exact same methodology that said the acc was the strongest basketball conference in the 00s (and presumably the 90s) says it’s the weakest today.
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The root of that is public perception. Media bias. The “ACC is down” narrative all last season somehow wasn’t changed by the ACC having one of the best NCAA tournaments any conference has had in years last year, and this at the start of the year our Kenpoms were bad and it effects the league for the entire season.
 
Teams with bad records who are rated highly in metrics generally:

1. Blow teams out
2. Lose a lot of close games
3. Play a difficult schedule
4. Play a higher percentage of road games

Teams with good records rated lowly in metrics generally:

1. Don’t beat teams by as much as they “should”
2. Win a lot of close games
3. Play an easy schedule
4. Play a decent amount of home games.

We do this every year with insert different team here. It was Penn State a few years ago, Wazzu seems to be a good candidate this year, VPI seems to be on this list a lot.

Torvik has less preseason bias right now than KP and the ACC is 7th - also behind the Mountain West. I’d imagine if you take the average or median from NET which has no preseason anchoring at all, the ACC is also still at least fifth. The ACC has five top 50 teams, Big 10 and Big 12 have 8. The PAC12 does only have 3 top 50 NET teams
 
I don’t know what preseason weighing is still around from KP but I know it phases out slowly as he’s found recruiting rankings and previous season(s) performance to be predictive (same calculation that almost all the football metrics use).

I’d be interested in hearing what major flaws exist and how they can be addressed from folks. The system just takes points per possession adjusted for opponent strength on offense/defense and plugs those numbers in each game producing a rating system. The non-weighting in NET leads some of the same people to complain “Florida Atlantic is top 14 in NET it sucks!”

The biggest issue - which I don’t even see as a flaw but just a modeling difficulty - is that there’s certainly a point where increased winning margin isn’t super predictive (winning by 60 instead of 40). We know that the larger the winning margin the lower the predictive value overall (believe KP wrote an article a couple years ago with data showing that once it’s above 18 points or so, the predictive measure is decently lower) but what’s the solution? Find a way to measure garbage time and remove possessions? How do we measure when a team “isn’t trying” anymore even if starters remain in? Difficult to quantify and I’d largely argue over 363 teams and 30+ games with 65-70 possessions a game, these are somewhat negligible concerns (but important to examine of course)
 
One concern I have is that with a decreased number of OOC games there’s less “connectivity” between conferences where you’re sort of just in a zero sum game once conference play starts. But there is still substantial data out there from the OOC games that are played
 
ACC has been pretty bad in the OOC the past two years. That plays a heavy role in the metrics + gives ACC teams limited opportunity at picking up Q1 and Q2 wins during conference play. The tournament runs that a few ACC teams made in the big dance last year is completely irrelevant when it comes to this conversation.

Wake had one Q1 win and four Q2 wins on Selection Sunday last year. A team with that resume never had a prayer of being an at-large team. This year's squad has a chance to surpass that amount by a fair margin. Hopefully they make the most of their opportunities.
 
In response to the earlier debate, I think last year's team was overall better than this year's, but this team is less likely to fall apart at the end of the year as it is more balanced and has more contributors. I honestly think Tyree and Alondes are pretty comparable. Alondes was flashier and scored a touch more but Tyree takes care of the ball way better and as a team we turn it over way less. Last year had two guys capable of playing the 5 at an ACC level, and this year we really don't have any unless Carr continues to show an ability to play there as he has recently. I think if you could take any one player from last year to make this year's team better, it's actually Dallas. Obviously, Jake is the best of the bunch and Alondes was a great player for us, but we miss Dallas the most especially defensively given what we have now.
 
Why did Ty play 39 minutes last night? I know we've learned margins are important and how quickly this team can throw away large leads, but up 15 early in the second he should have bought a breather for a minute or two, and up nearly 20 at the under 4 he should have been pulled for the rest of the game. Really don't want to have him burned out at all because he and Hildreth are the only two guys I trust handling the ball against ball pressure and he's by far the most important guy in running the offense.
 
Pretty sure Appleby got a breather before a TV timeout in the 2nd.

Just looked and he didn’t. Could have sworn he went out briefly.
 
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Since we're on the KenPom tangent, was anybody aware Wake has the #1 home court advantage in the conference?

There's a blog post explaining that the only thing that really matters is tiers (in thirds); but it's still a neat stat over the past 60 home games.
 

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Once I thought Ty was out of the game because Cam and Williamson were handling the ball. Then I saw Ty standing in the corner like he was Williamson.
 
vtwhat etc said:
Since we're on the KenPom tangent, was anybody aware Wake has the #1 home court advantage in the conference?

There's a blog post explaining that the only thing that really matters is tiers (in thirds); but it's still a neat stat over the past 60 home games.
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Yes. Last night’s big road win brought the HC advantage down from #6 to #14 nationally.
 
DeacInVermont said:
He was playing off ball for several possessions. I thought at the time they were effectively giving him rest while he was on the court.
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I think this is the way. We aren’t deep. At all. And fall off massively when he goes to the bench.

Of course we also can’t have him handling the Wisconsin-level of burden for 39 minutes a game.

This is the in-between where defenses still have to worry about him without us relying on him creating something every possession.

And if we only have 14+ games of him left? Let us get as many minutes of Tyree as possible.
 
WFU03 said:
Wasn’t there another poster who was even more anti-cam than 22?
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BamaDeac said:
I despise Hildreth. No athleticism, no BBall IQ, a waste of space. He should follow Carter Whitt to Furman.
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BamaDeac said:
Hildreth is major of a liability, especially when handling the ball.
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BamaDeac said:
What does Hildreth bring to this team? If he gets hurt and is out for an extended amount of time, would it really hurt the team?
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