Will we be Better or Worse next year?

[deacphan]

it amazes me how on every thread some guy can manage to get in to a petty argument.

 

[DeaconOEF/OIFvet]

11-13 wins tops. I'm still expecting at least one transfer and/or early departure within the next couple of weeks.

 

[RJKarl]

To get to 13 wins, we'll likely need 7-9 OOC victories.

 

[WT901]

"So you're right because any big that isn't good shouldn't be considered as actually contributing to a roster's "size"?"

The fact is only Cav and Devin played real minutes. Cav is playing out of position. It doesn't matter that he's 6'9. He's a swing 3/4. He had never played in the post in his life before coming to Wake. Being a big means being a post player.
Who cares about how tall people who won't play much are?"

That's downright disrespectful to the players, and is also nothing more than an opinion"

It's not disrespectful. it's their reality thus far. They have the chance to prove me wrong and I hope they do.

You really need to learn how to use the quote function...

Regardless of what the definition of a "big" is and what Cav or Devin's role on the team is or will be, you said size is our issue. We have large people; this is undeniable. I know they need coaching and have yet to prove themselves (other than Devin. The dude is a MAN). But saying size is the issue simply isn't true anymore, not with DG healthy. If you want to say talent is the issue, say it. If you want to say talent in the taller guys is the issue, than say that. Don't pin it on size. We've got that, even though Dre could use a few lbs.

 

[RJKarl]

Whenever anyone discusses a team and says "they don't have bigs" or "don't have a PG, everyone except you understands that it's about talent.

There's no sense in continuing this. There's nothing you can say that will change my mind.

Get back to the subject.

 

[WT901]

Whenever anyone discusses a team and says "they don't have bigs" or "don't have a PG, everyone except you understands that it's about talent.

Again you use an example from a different angle... Of course in that case you can assume they're talking about talent. You said we don't have size.

Yes, we do.

There's no sense in continuing this. There's nothing you can say that will change my mind.

Clearly. I'd expect nothing less.

Get back to the subject.

We're talking about next year right? The team? This is somewhat relevant.

 

[RJKarl]

Troll on.

 

[PhDeac]

it amazes me how on every thread the same guy can manage to get in to a petty argument.

Fixed.

 

[DCDeac]

We'll be significantly better with Cav playing 0 minutes at the 5.

I'd expect Travis to have a nice year, and a more consistent year shooting the ball, as a senior who's trying to find a way into the league.

We will probably need Codi to fill CJ's shoes - however I think the impact of losing CJ is overstated a bit in this thread. I love the guy, but CJ was a nice shooter with some clever moves inside who would be a great complementary player on a legit ACC team. He often struggled to get his own shot, especially when nobody was biting on head fakes, and he really didn't close out many games well. The missed layup at VA Tech, he was cold and then had the eye thing and wasn't really involved when we beat NC State (had 1 point in the final 18 minutes), he slipped and fell in one last second shot attempt (BC maybe?), only 4 points in the 2nd half when we had Duke on the ropes, 0/4 with a few turnovers in the last 8 minutes of Maryland... He had a lot of hot first halves but was definitely part of the problem as far as the team disappearing late in games and struggling to close games out. We also probably upgrade the defense if we move to a Madison/Codi/Travis/Moto/Devin starting lineup.

Plus in general you'd expect Moto to improve, Devin to be more consistently like the end-of-year Devin versus early year Devin, so his numbers will be up.

The problem is that I doubt the improvement will get us that far. I mean, we were one of the worst teams in the league, and the league will be far tougher next year. If we just improve steadily, we will still be middle-of-the-road. We can certainly pull off wins against the poor teams and split with a few decent teams, but I don't see us getting to 20 wins and an NCAA appearance (or at least a UVA-like first 4 out), which by year 4 should be the expectation.

Worst possible outcome is we win 17 games and [Redacted] skates again in the name of "improvement" while we finish 3rd to last in the conference...

 

[PhDeac]

All that is true about CJ. We still don't return anybody who could hold his jock.

 

[DCDeac]

All that is true about CJ. We still don't return anybody who could hold his jock.

Today? True. Codi by the time ACC play starts up in a year? Possibly. I think he has more upside than CJ did.

 

[KidA23]

Think Wranger has made the best point on this thread; the usual freshman-to-sophomore "leap" may be less of a benefit for us given how many minutes our freshmen already got. This is not to say they won't be improved next year -- I am certain they will. But normally I think a major factor in the "leap" phenomenon is that the sophomores in question were formerly role players who received minimal PT and, consequently, minimal exposure to ACC competition. In other words, they're better as sophomores (1) not only because they improved over the summer, but also because (2) the guys now guarding them never really saw them play before.

Here, our freshmen played lots of minutes in a variety of lineup combinations against every team. They're going to need to improve drastically in their own respective skill sets to make the kind of on-court-production improvements that a lot of folks here are projecting, IMHO.

 

[ChrisL68]

The improvement by CMM would have to be remarkable to reach the level that CJ was at this year.

 

[DCDeac]

The improvement by CMM would have to be remarkable to reach the level that CJ was at this year.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Codi needs to or will score 15+ a game next year. But in the closer role we gave CJ last year he struggled, and if the rest of the team picks up their scoring I think Codi could be a go-to guy when you need a bucket. That step-back elbow jumper of his is a legitimate weapon.

 

[RJKarl]

Codi could score 15 ppg if we did PnR with he and Devin. It isn't rocket science. There's no reason these plays couldn't produce 15-25 ppg.

Codi won't score in the same way as CJ did.

 

[WFUWaldo]

I believe next year's team would win in a game against this year's team, but we'll finish largely with the same record and kenpom range

 

[Haros]

if we are talking KP ranking then the new teams make little difference in how "good" we are.

Yep. 80% of the responses aren't in regards to the initial question.

My take is we improve based on the question at hand to ~90-100 KP ranking. This probably won't result in much better than 11th/12th of 15 or 6-12 or 7-11 in conference based on the improvement of the rest of the conference.

We were 89th in adjusted defense this year, which was a very surprising bump for a bunch of freshmen from the complete debaucle that were [Redacted]'s previous 4 seasons (and in line with his first at Colorado). In fact, almost our entire improvement from the prior season came from the defensive end, as offense posted even a slightly lower rating than the previous year. I'd expect to be even a little better defensively (60th give or take) this year by virtue of: 1) more experience across the board, 2) adding a stronger Green/Dre/Moto in the post so Cav never plays the 5, and 3) any attrition we may have isn't likely to be our best defenders.

On offense, CJ's production won't be made up by one person, but could well be made up by modest improvement across the board from everyone else. We were 184th in OE as it was, which was in line with the previous year and frankly sucks. Keeping Travis constant with his full year rating, bumping Devin to his second half rating for the whole year, and getting modest improvement out of the remaining players, in particular CMM (90.3 to 96), Moto (89.6 to 95), and Cav (83.4 to 94), we would actually have a slightly better offense than we did last year while counting on no improvement from Rountree and Jones, and very little offense from Green, Dre, or Overton. Those improvements are all reasonable to expect based on more defined roles and a summer to focus on specific areas for skill improvement, and would put us around 100 in Kenpom.

 

[pourdeac]

Here, our freshmen played lots of minutes in a variety of lineup combinations against every team. They're going to need to improve drastically in their own respective skill sets to make the kind of on-court-production improvements that a lot of folks here are projecting, IMHO.

That may be true for CMM and DT, but I think players like Moto and Madison Jones will be more consistent and if that happens, their individual numbers could go up pretty dramatically. Jones finished the season 12/16 over the last 6 games if I counted correct. They are the kind of players that make a stats jump between years.

The two factors I think will go in our favor is that our OOC results should be better since we got better during the year and I do not expect the home-away schizophrenia to continue because that looks mental. For us to make a leap, I think one of the freshmen will have to play well and that could be the case, although it's an unknown at this point.

But overall a little more individual consistency from some players, better road confidence, and a freshman contributing isn't something crazy to expect and that could easily put us <100 in KP. Fla St made the NIT going 9-9/18-16.

 

[marquee moon]

some of you are going to want to change your vote after all the transfers are disclosed

 

[RJKarl]

To have the same record as we had this year in the ACC, we will have to be much better.