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Will we be Better or Worse next year?

Will we be Better or Worse next year?

  • Total voters
    205
  • Poll closed .
Marquee Moon said:
some of you are going to want to change your vote after all the transfers are disclosed
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Yeah, I posted earlier in the thread we should be better, but I held off voting, expecting some transfers.
 
Marquee Moon said:
some of you are going to want to change your vote after all the transfers are disclosed
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Ugh, you're teasing me, Moonz. Not doubting you, but you have legit sources on this?
 
Until we know for sure who is coming back next year this poll is impossible to answer.
 
Wrangor said:
The idea that freshman automatically improve when they become sophomores is a myth in college basketball. In fact you see some players that are worse as sophomores.
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The idea that anyone thinks that freshmen automatically improve when they become sophomores is a strawman.

Of course some players get worse as sophomores. Most, however, get better. The idea that players improve the most between their frosh and soph years is one of those widely accepted axioms that actually holds up under statistical scrutiny.

Big Ten Geeks summed it up well: "The big, overarching conclusion is this: a player shows the most improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons than he does any other offseason. In fact, the freshman offseason improvement is, on average, greater than the improvement between a player's sophomore season and his senior season. That's not to say every player follows this pattern. There are lots and lots of exceptions, and this is no hard-and-fast rule. It's just a remark about the averages. And frankly, that's all we do around here, play the averages."

I found a Michigan State blog post that pulled out an excellent table from one of the Basketball Prospectus books:

72pudk.png


Applying those numbers to our 8 freshmen (including DGreen), we should expect 1 player to significantly regress, 2 players to slightly regress, 2-3 players to slightly improve, and 2-3 players to significantly improve. On the whole, it is safe to assume significant improvement from our rising sophomore class, despite the fact that it is unlikely they all improve.
 
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stonz said:
The idea that anyone thinks that freshmen automatically improve when they become sophomores is a strawman.

Of course some players get worse as sophomores. Most, however, get better. The idea that players improve the most between their frosh and soph years is one of those widely accepted axioms that actually holds up under statistical scrutiny.

Big Ten Geeks summed it up well: "The big, overarching conclusion is this: a player shows the most improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons than he does any other offseason. In fact, the freshman offseason improvement is, on average, greater than the improvement between a player's sophomore season and his senior season. That's not to say every player follows this pattern. There are lots and lots of exceptions, and this is no hard-and-fast rule. It's just a remark about the averages. And frankly, that's all we do around here, play the averages."

I found a Michigan State blog post that pulled out an excellent table from one of the Basketball Prospectus books:

72pudk.png


Applying those numbers to our 8 freshmen (including DGreen), we should expect 1 player to significantly regress, 2 players to slightly regress, 2-3 players to slightly improve, and 2-3 players to significantly improve. On the whole, it is safe to assume significant improvement from our rising sophomore class, despite the fact that it is unlikely they all improve.
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Scary thing is that the ones that did not play that much or that efficiently may improve the most while our heavily relied upon people are the ones that regress. Probably not going to happen that way but it's possible.
 
Interesting thread last year, and we still have a ways to go, but it looks like we'll be top 110. I think the sophomore jumps of players like CMM, Cav and Moto have been tremendous to our team so far this year and stonz did a great job of pointing that out with his research. Also funny how the post before this led to Jaybone's 17.5 over/under bets.
 
I think this thread was before we had learned Coron was on board. Coron has done wonders for this team offensively.
 
olddke said:
Just reread this thread. Overall, this board sucks at fortune telling.
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LOL. This poll closed on April 1st. It was nothing more than a show of frustration from the diehards (i.e. the ones still posting well after Wake basketball was done for the season) at how much Buzz sucks at all things basketball.
 
WFUWaldo said:
How many wins do you think Coron is responsible for?
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Hard to really quantify. Coron has made some really key 3s down the stretch. It's hard to say what would have happened on those possessions if Coron wasn't here. It's also hard to really quantify the impact Coron being our only perimeter threat has on opponents' defenses and thus our offense. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say we'd be 12-8 (2 fewer wins) if Coron wasn't on this team.
 
woody9186 said:
Hard to really quantify. Coron has made some really key 3s down the stretch. It's hard to say what would have happened on those possessions if Coron wasn't here. It's also hard to really quantify the impact Coron being our only perimeter threat has on opponents' defenses and thus our offense. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say we'd be 12-8 (2 fewer wins) if Coron wasn't on this team.
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I think Coron has been a big asset to this team and I am a big fan of his play. But if Coron has resulted in 2 additional wins then his win share/minute rate would be on par with players like Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin.
 
Coron has the best offensive rating on the team. It's not even close. He doesn't turn the ball over, he shoots 40% from outside, and doesn't commit fouls.
 
WFUWaldo said:
I think Coron has been a big asset to this team and I am a big fan of his play. But if Coron has resulted in 2 additional wins then his win share/minute rate would be on par with players like Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin.
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According to basketball reference Coron's win share for this year overall is 1.9.
 
I'm giving me from ten months ago a pat on the back. Nailed (most of) it. The poll was an easy one, and would have produced the same answer without Coron, though he's played well and has taken us up another 10-20 spots.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
According to basketball reference Coron's win share for this year overall is 1.9.
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Which means we'd likely be 12-8 without him.

Oregon St. and Utah St. are 11-8 and 12-7 respectively. They are 99, 100 in kenpom with a similar SOS to ours.

Colorado State is 12-8 with a similar SOS to ours. They are 142 in kenpom.

We'd likely be somewhere in that range without Coron.
 
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