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Should Obama compromise/negotiate with the Tea Party?

JH,
I have had two check delays because of the shutdown, there is an average American who has felt some impact from the shutdown. Further, it is my understanding that this process is forward moving in that the longer it goes on the more things and people will be effected.

I have no doubt that there are some people get worked over by this business; I'm sure of it. My question is whether it is anecdotal (and acute) or whether this is widespread enough to have lasting political impact. We always get these doom and gloom tales about the government shutting down (last year it was the cliff, this year it's the shutdown, next year it will be something else...). I wonder if someone is overplaying their hand a little bit. What happens when a certain percentage of the population decides that we can actually live without the "big government we can't live without"?
 
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I think there are two things at play here: the government shutdown and the debt ceiling issue. As far as the government shutdown is concerned, there may be a little bit of doom and gloom over the whole ordeal but at the end of the day I think that it's ultimately pretty concerning that we have 800,000 people out of work since it is undoubtedly going to hurt America's economic bottom line. Even if it is a tenth of a percentage of the national annual GDP, this is still a tangible impact on families which are living paycheck to paycheck.

I do not think there has been any real doom and gloom tale about the debt ceiling problem if no deal is reached by Thursday. You have 95% agreement that it's going to cause real damage to the American economy almost immediately and the remaining 5% are nut jobs who just want to disagree with anything that might be attached to Obama. To group these two together I believe is unwise when trying to throw a blanket over the impact each might have on America.

The longer the shutdown goes on the more I expect to hear from GOP people "oh it's obvious we don't really need these jobs anyway, it was just bureaucracy" which just makes the group want to push us over the fiscal cliff thinking the same thing will happen. I think that's not only dangerous, but downright stupid. The House GOP is not only holding the country hostage as domestic terrorists, they're doing serious damage to America's financial credibility on a global scale while failing to address any substantive domestic structural problems as far as the government shutdown goes.
 
Do you believe the average American voter is impacted by a shutdown of a subset of nonessential employees? Can you point to an impact in your life that has changed? What "moment" are we supposed to be feeling?

I won't answer for Connor but here are a few "impacts in my life" that have changed.

Broadly (see sections pertaining to NIH): http://www.hhs.gov/budget/fy2014/fy2014contingency_staffing_plan-rev2.pdf

NIH


NIH would not admit new patients (unless deemed medically necessary by the NIH Director), or initiate new protocols, and would discontinue some veterinary services. NIH will not take any actions on grant applications or awards.

(that's a direct impact in my life. I'm still eating, yes, but people's careers are directly affected.)

Not directly attributable to the shutdown (this is in response to sequestration), but along the same lines: http://directorsblog.nih.gov/2013/09/24/one-nation-in-support-of-biomedical-research/

Because of sequester, NIH will be funding 650 fewer research grants than it did last fiscal year. Nearly a quarter of those unfunded applications have come from scientists who’d already made substantial progress in earlier grant awards and were hoping to renew them. Peer reviewers judged their research in the top 17% of all applications received, but they will now have to stop ongoing research projects—meaning, in this double tragedy, we will lose both previous and future research investments.

I'm not attending this year's meeting of the Society for Neuroscience, but it is annually one of the top-attended international scientific conferences anywhere (probably half my department attends each year): http://scientopia.org/blogs/drugmonkey/2013/10/07/sfn-2013-the-government-shutdown-edition/
http://www.sfn.org/Advocacy/Neurosc...ng-Priorities/Government-Shutdown-Information

What the shutdown says about our politicians' views on science: http://blog.brainfacts.org/2013/10/dont-fail-the-future-science-as-a-national-choice/#.Ul1U41MwC8B

Right now, hundreds of experiments are either paused or terminated. Valuable mouse lines are also in jeopardy because researchers can’t go to work to perform essential maintenance. Clinical trials activity (most visibly cancer trials designed to test new treatments and produce new breakthroughs) has slowed to a crawl although – for the moment at least – there’s limited enrollment in existing trials.
Less visible, but equally important, are the effects on investigators in the NIH extramural program. This is research that is funded through the NIH, but it happens across the country at universities and major medical centers in your community. New grants can’t be evaluated because peer review is on hold, and even new grants that have been awarded can’t be released, because NIH staff isn’t there to process them.

...
Perhaps just as troubling are the signals that are being sent to young researchers who we hope will develop the next generation of treatments and cures. The choice of becoming a scientist has always been fraught with a high level of risk. Fewer than 43% of life scientists we train will go on to work as academic researchers, with a much smaller percentage obtaining a tenure track position. Even if they are successful in competing for these jobs, the falling success rates of federally-sponsored research means that the average age of obtaining their first NIH grant will continue to creep into the 40s, when those new scientists won’t be so new anymore. The failure to support the American research enterprise doesn’t only fail science within the current budget cycle – it fails the future by depriving America of the talent we need to invent and innovate, which in turn harms economic growth.

NIH shutdown effects multiply: businesses and academic researchers among those affected by ongoing US government shutdown.

Shutdown's quiet toll, from idle research to closed wallets.
 
Similar situation for me from NSF. Thankfully my grant meeting in DC is paid for by a grant and not directly.

If the Republican Party is really a party of peace, where are the moderate Republicans to stand up to the extremists?
 
I think there are two things at play here: the government shutdown and the debt ceiling issue. As far as the government shutdown is concerned, there may be a little bit of doom and gloom over the whole ordeal but at the end of the day I think that it's ultimately pretty concerning that we have 800,000 people out of work since it is undoubtedly going to hurt America's economic bottom line. Even if it is a tenth of a percentage of the national annual GDP, this is still a tangible impact on families which are living paycheck to paycheck.

I do not think there has been any real doom and gloom tale about the debt ceiling problem if no deal is reached by Thursday. You have 95% agreement that it's going to cause real damage to the American economy almost immediately and the remaining 5% are nut jobs who just want to disagree with anything that might be attached to Obama. To group these two together I believe is unwise when trying to throw a blanket over the impact each might have on America.

The longer the shutdown goes on the more I expect to hear from GOP people "oh it's obvious we don't really need these jobs anyway, it was just bureaucracy" which just makes the group want to push us over the fiscal cliff thinking the same thing will happen. I think that's not only dangerous, but downright stupid. The House GOP is not only holding the country hostage as domestic terrorists, they're doing serious damage to America's financial credibility on a global scale while failing to address any substantive domestic structural problems as far as the government shutdown goes.

Do you believe that the only thing holding this Administration back from fixing substantive domestic structural problems is the last two weeks? To put it mildly, nothing about its track record for the first five years would indicate that is true (and there is an ample body of contrary evidence).
 
The Obama administration has tried to pass widespread health insurance reform and the Republicans are trying to contest it from even being implemented.
 
The Obama administration has tried to pass widespread health insurance reform and the Republicans are trying to contest it from even being implemented.

That's certainly correct, but that's not the only thing happening.

God help us and against the will of most people, the poorly-reasoned (and even more poorly-timed) plan of ACA is the law of the land. John Roberts put it on the 2012 ballot, and the Republicans were dumb enough to pick the only candidate that couldn't run against it. Fine. Bad laws happen, and the private sector will work around it. It sucks, but it's survivable (ironically, it's hurting the working poor with existing insurance policies the most. Classic).

It might only be the intention of House Republicans to use the shutdown in an ill-fated attempt to block ACA, but whether by accident or design, it's not a bad idea ($17T up the creek) to field test which nonessential functions the people footing the bill can live without. Given that both parties have no intention of ever cutting spending and this Administration has never advanced a plan to seriously address the debt, it does create a potential opportunity---if they were smart enough to take it----for the Republicans to show how much money that our government wasn't allowed to waste during the Shutdown, and return that to them in the form of a rebate, rate reduction, refundable credit, and/or national debt retirement. So...if you operate a daycare out of your home in the Mississippi Delta, and suddenly $250.00 shows up one day as your share of the savings for not having the gift shop open in Bangladesh consulate that you weren't going to, people might get a sense of the fact that yes, you can actually run a government without deficit spending. Since the people are the ultimate stakeholders in an efficient government, it might not be bad to help bring them closer to their stake in a well-managed central government.
 
How is it against the will of most people? Everybody knew Obama was going to pass healthcare reform when he was running for president and he got the majority of the votes. Furthermore it passed through Congress. It is certainly not "against the will of the people" and even in the event that it actually is then what does it indicate about our system that we elected people who don't represent the will of the people?
 
The sad part is Republicans are now buying into all of this garbage.

"Look the world hasn't ended with this so-called 'shutdown'"


It might only be the intention of House Republicans to use the shutdown in an ill-fated attempt to block ACA, but whether by accident or design, it's not a bad idea ($17T up the creek) to field test which nonessential functions the people footing the bill can live without.

Lol yep

So...if you operate a daycare out of your home in the Mississippi Delta, and suddenly $250.00 shows up one day as your share of the savings for not having the gift shop open in Bangladesh consulate that you weren't going to, people might get a sense of the fact that yes, you can actually run a government without deficit spending. Since the people are the ultimate stakeholders in an efficient government, it might not be bad to help bring them closer to their stake in a well-managed central government.

Lol when the fuck is the bold ever going to happen? Spoiler: never.
 
$20 billion is the cost of the shutdown so far.

Does anybody really think we've saved $20 billion over the two weeks?
 
How is it against the will of most people? Everybody knew Obama was going to pass healthcare reform when he was running for president and he got the majority of the votes. Furthermore it passed through Congress. It is certainly not "against the will of the people" and even in the event that it actually is then what does it indicate about our system that we elected people who don't represent the will of the people?

Have you ever seen any poll since this was passed that says a majority of people support this law? Did you happen to recall the 2010 elections?

If it helps:

Public Approval of Health Care Law

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
Polling Data


Poll

Date

Sample

For/Favor

Against/Oppose

Spread

RCP Average 9/27 - 10/9 -- 38.0 48.3 Against/Oppose +10.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/7 - 10/9 800 A 38 43 Against/Oppose +5
Associated Press/GfK 10/3 - 10/7 1227 A 28 38 Against/Oppose +10
Rasmussen Reports* 10/4 - 10/5 1000 LV 45 49 Against/Oppose +4
FOX News* 10/1 - 10/2 952 RV 36 52 Against/Oppose +16
CBS News 10/1 - 10/2 1021 A 43 51 Against/Oppose +8
CNN/Opinion Research 9/27 - 9/29 803 A 38 57 Against/Oppose +19

All Public Approval of Health Care Law Polling Data
 
Have you ever seen any poll since this was passed that says a majority of people support this law? Did you happen to recall the 2010 elections?

If it helps:

Public Approval of Health Care Law

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
Polling Data


Poll

Date

Sample

For/Favor

Against/Oppose

Spread

RCP Average 9/27 - 10/9 -- 38.0 48.3 Against/Oppose +10.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/7 - 10/9 800 A 38 43 Against/Oppose +5
Associated Press/GfK 10/3 - 10/7 1227 A 28 38 Against/Oppose +10
Rasmussen Reports* 10/4 - 10/5 1000 LV 45 49 Against/Oppose +4
FOX News* 10/1 - 10/2 952 RV 36 52 Against/Oppose +16
CBS News 10/1 - 10/2 1021 A 43 51 Against/Oppose +8
CNN/Opinion Research 9/27 - 9/29 803 A 38 57 Against/Oppose +19

All Public Approval of Health Care Law Polling Data

Why do the 2010 elections count, but the 2012 elections don't?
 
Love that JHMD is still using the 2010 elections as a straw poll of the whole nation when there have been other elections since then
 
Love that JHMD is still using the 2010 elections as a straw poll of the whole nation when there have been other elections since then

It's like you consciously ignore the link to every relevant poll, all taken in the last 90 days.

Well, it's like that b/c you did. Go back and read it again, Jr., this time for understanding.
 
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