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Official: Wake vs. Nostradamus Thread

I figured we would win 16 games. We have won most of our close games.
 
I think we're gonna need more than one top 50 RPI win. Hard to believe a team with one top 50 RPI win and an unimpressive non-conf SOS would come close to getting in, no matter if the AD is the chair of the selection committee or not
 
wsc8521s said:
I think we're gonna need more than one top 50 RPI win. Hard to believe a team with one top 50 RPI win and an unimpressive non-conf SOS would come close to getting in, no matter if the AD is the chair of the selection committee or not
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We have no bad losses, which helps. We present an unusual resume.
 
We have four road conference games left against non-top 50 RPI teams. Are we going to win all of them? My guess is we win max one.

Another thing that doesn't impress the committee: complete failure to win on the road.

We're not even close to smelling the bubble yet. A lot of work would have to be done
 
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We ain't going to the NCAA Tourney. Why's it even being discussed? Does 18 wins get us into the NIT you think if those wins are GT, BC, Clemson, and Miami?
 
Marquee Moon said:
Are people actually excited about this big win?
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Received this negrep:

01-25-2014 05:41 PM
deacfreke2
Thread: Official: Wake vs. Nostradamus Thread
People aoove the level of low IQ mouth breathers are. Too bad you're nothing more than a low IQ mouth-breather, if you're even that.
 
woody9186 said:
We ain't going to the NCAA Tourney. Why's it even being discussed? Does 18 wins get us into the NIT you think if those wins are GT, BC, Clemson, and Miami?
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I still say that if WF is on the bubble, Ronnie's Selection Committee seat will get us in. Not that we're going to do a damn thing if/when we get there...
 
woody9186 said:
We ain't going to the NCAA Tourney. Why's it even being discussed? Does 18 wins get us into the NIT you think if those wins are GT, BC, Clemson, and Miami?
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Because Wake is on the bubble right now? Wake is projected by KP to get to 18 wins and if we can snag one road win that we have a 35%-40% shot in, we're up to 19 wins if we hold serve at home. That's still squarely on the bubble. Why wouldn't we be talking about it right now?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Because Wake is on the bubble right now? Wake is projected by KP to get to 18 wins and if we can snag one road win that we have a 35%-40% shot in, we're up to 19 wins if we hold serve at home. That's still squarely on the bubble. Why wouldn't we be talking about it right now?
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Bubble is the 50's I would say. We're 76th. We're not close to the bubble right now, and we haven't even played the toughest part of our schedule yet. 19 wins ain't getting us even close to in. 21-22 is the minimum with our awful OOC schedule.
 
woody9186 said:
Bubble is the 50's I would say. We're 76th. We're not close to the bubble right now, and we haven't even played the toughest part of our schedule yet. 19 wins ain't getting us even close to in. 21-22 is the minimum with our awful OOC schedule.
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I've talked about this before but a 76th ranked Kenpom team w/ a top 20 luck rating is probably a better NCAA tournament resume than a Kenpom team in the 50s w/ average luck. A team within the last few years made the NCAA as an at large ranked around 90th with top 20 luck.

In a 3 game stretch, Kenpom prefers lose by 5, lose by 5, lose by 5 over lose by 20, win by 1, win by 1. NCAA tournament prefers the latter.
 
FckVwls said:
I've talked about this before but a 76th ranked Kenpom team w/ a top 20 luck rating is probably a better NCAA tournament resume than a Kenpom team in the 50s w/ average luck. A team within the last few years made the NCAA as an at large ranked around 90th with top 20 luck.
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Who was that?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Because Wake is on the bubble right now? Wake is projected by KP to get to 18 wins and if we can snag one road win that we have a 35%-40% shot in, we're up to 19 wins if we hold serve at home. That's still squarely on the bubble. Why wouldn't we be talking about it right now?
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So if Wake beats GT, FSU, Clemson and BC at home, wins one more road game, and wins an ACCT game, you think we'd have a realistic chance of getting in, with 1 top 50 RPI win, 2 road wins and a poor non-conference SOS?

Prepare to be disappointed
 
wsc8521s said:
So if Wake beats GT, FSU, Clemson and BC at home, wins one more road game, and wins an ACCT game, you think we'd have a realistic chance of getting in, with 1 top 50 RPI win, 2 road wins and a poor non-conference SOS?

Prepare to be disappointed
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The odds of us having a win over Syracuse or Duke this season is probably around 50-50. Similarly, the chances we win all 4 of those games you mentioned is quite unlikely. Despite the fact we have had predictable results thus far it is very hard to just pick wins and losses off a schedule.

Obviously we are unlikely to make the NCAA tournament. But we probably have a 10-20% chance if we get lucky and improve a tad. So it is worth talking about what would have to happen etc.
 
I don't disagree with that (besides maybe the 50% chance of beating 'cuse or Duke part). Numbers is making it sound a lot more likely than 10 (probably closer to this) or 20%, however
 
Wake's 58th in the RPI right now. Problem is no marquee wins. And I didn't say we had a realistic shot of getting in, I said we'd be on the bubble which is why people are talking about it. If you can't talk about the NCAA Tournament with a 14-6 team in a top 4 conference when can you?

ETA: we are expected to win .56 games against Duke and Syracuse in the three total matchups. And at what point have I ever said it was likely we would be in? My conversation has been solely qualified by "we would be on the bubble" and I even said that we're not on the right side of the bubble right now. Reading is key.
 
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Isn't part of the definition of "being on the bubble" having a "realistic shot of getting in"?
 
Last year California got into the tourney with a 52 RPI, four wins against top 50 KP teams (best win over 15 Arizona) and four losses to teams outside KP's top 50 (worse being 108th Utah in the Pac 12 tournament).

Wake is squarely on the bubble right now.
 
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