FiveThirtyEight midterms projections update: Republicans favored to take the Senate

[Wakeforest22890]

VERY low libertarian turn out in GA. Nunn may be fucked. Of course she was going to lose in a runoff if it got there so no big problem I guess.

 

[Wakelaw2006]

VERY low libertarian turn out in GA. Nunn may be fucked. Of course she was going to lose in a runoff if it got there so no big problem I guess.

Said it on the other thread, but I don't think you can actually read low libertarian turn out into the numbers yet. It certainly could end up that way, but based on the counties that are in, I don't think you can really draw any inferences yet. I'm with you though - Nunn loses the runoff, so if I can avoid the horrible ads for the next 2 months, I guess Perdue winning outright tonight has at least one positive.

 

[Billy Mitchell]

Perdue Still Looking Good In Georgia
More than 425,000 votes have now been counted in Georgia, and results continue to look good for Republican David Perdue. He is outperforming the 2008 performance of Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the vast majority of counties reporting. Chambliss got 49.8 percent of the vote, so Perdue just needs to beat Chambliss’s benchmarks by the tiniest of margins. In Fulton County (home to Atlanta), where over 12 percent of precincts are reporting, Perdue is trailing Democrat Michelle Nunn by 16 percentage points. Chambliss lost that county by 30 percentage points in 2008.

http://53eig.ht/1tYAv22

 

[Shorty]

,

Perdue Still Looking Good In Georgia
More than 425,000 votes have now been counted in Georgia, and results continue to look good for Republican David Perdue. He is outperforming the 2008 performance of Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the vast majority of counties reporting. Chambliss got 49.8 percent of the vote, so Perdue just needs to beat Chambliss’s benchmarks by the tiniest of margins. In Fulton County (home to Atlanta), where over 12 percent of precincts are reporting, Perdue is trailing Democrat Michelle Nunn by 16 percentage points. Chambliss lost that county by 30 percentage points in 2008.

http://53eig.ht/1tYAv22

It depends on which Fulton precincts are reporting. Atlanta and south Fulton are blue. North Fulton is red. Part of North Fulton was Newt's district.

 

[HowardDeanSux]

I'm not upset if the Republicans win. GOP has no plans to do anything the next two years and Cruz wants to investigate Obama for abusing power - which will be comical because him v. McConnell and Paul is going to be high comedy. Rand and Mitch are going to be looking across the aisle saying WTF is this, while Dems say "yep been dealing with this craziness for the past four years...your problem now."

You all crack me up. Since it is "good" for the Dems the Pubs won the Senate, am I correct in assuming you did your part and voted for "your" Republican senator? Get real...

 

[jhmd2000]

I tend to agree with you. Losing the Senate might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the Democrats. It all depends upon what the Republicans do with it.....and who ends up calling the shots for the Republicans during the next two years. It may end up being one of those deals where they are giving the Republicans the rope to hang themselves with.

On the other hand, if the more reasonable Republicans prevail and they show that they've learned something about actually governing, it could give the GOP a much-needed boost in national appeal. The bottom line is that it looks like we now going to have the opportunity to see exactly what the GOP really stands for today.....because I really don't see any way the Democrats can end up with 50 Senate seats after tonight. And though you won't find a Democrat in Washington coming out and saying it, losing the Senate tonight might be the best thing that could happen for them.

ETA: I do think Kay Hagan is going to win. And if she does, I think the NC legislature's blatant attempts to suppress the vote is going to be the reason she wins this race.

Harry Reid has done a better job protecting this President than the Secret Service. A Pub Senate will give POTUS a chance to stand on his own two. Genuinely interested to see how that turns out. The President is a more capable politician than Harry Reid thought. The wrong Senator from Kentucky is the majority leader, so I could see business as usual from an already toxic relationship.

To the people who think that a Pub Senate is a placeholder for a Dem recapture in 2016 on Hillary's coattails, do you guys really see the enthusiasm for Hillary in 2016 that was missing in 2008? Where?

P.S. That kinda night at MSNBC: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/04/tom-brokaw-phone_n_6103898.html

 

[Deacon923]

Democratic Party woke up this morning like

 

[Wakeforest22890]

You all crack me up. Since it is "good" for the Dems the Pubs won the Senate, am I correct in assuming you did your part and voted for "your" Republican senator? Get real...

No because I think Hagan was a better candidate than Tillis. I didn't say "I hope the Republicans win," I said "I'm not upset if the Republicans win." In what universe does "not upset if...." equal that I should have voted for the GOP?

 

[Deacon923]

To the people who think that a Pub Senate is a placeholder for a Dem recapture in 2016 on Hillary's coattails, do you guys really see the enthusiasm for Hillary in 2016 that was missing in 2008? Where?

I can't figure that out either. All the anointing has gone too far. Hillary draws a lot of negative reactions, even from some female Democrats. The Congress will probably be a clown show for two years, but don't forget there's plenty of opportunities for Obama to screw up and taint the Democratic Party brand even more than it is now.

 

[Biff Tannen]

Taint.

 

[FuckmouthedRube]

I can't figure that out either. All the anointing has gone too far. Hillary draws a lot of negative reactions, even from some female Democrats. The Congress will probably be a clown show for two years, but don't forget there's plenty of opportunities for Obama to screw up and taint the Democratic Party brand even more than it is now.

Hillary had terrible advisers in 2008 an she has a weak staff now. There was no reason for her to rev up the 2016 machine too early. She screwed up her book tour and couldn't stop making tone deaf comments about wealth. Kinda think she's too arrogant to hire strong people who aren't too scared to tell her what she needs to hear rather than what she wants to hear. She fell into the "inevitable trap" once and looks like she's falling into it again. Electoral college and demographic advantages are all well and good, but that don't guarantee crappy candidates can win. Dennis Kuchinich wouldn't have won in 2008. Both parties seem to be too focused on hoping heir opponents screw up rather than on running on winning policies and recruiting good candidates.

 

[jhmd2000]

Hillary had terrible advisers in 2008 an she has a weak staff now. There was no reason for her to rev up the 2016 machine too early. She screwed up her book tour and couldn't stop making tone deaf comments about wealth. Kinda think she's too arrogant to hire strong people who aren't too scared to tell her what she needs to hear rather than what she wants to hear. She fell into the "inevitable trap" once and looks like she's falling into it again. Electoral college and demographic advantages are all well and good, but that don't guarantee crappy candidates can win. Dennis Kuchinich wouldn't have won in 2008. Both parties seem to be too focused on hoping heir opponents screw up rather than on running on winning policies and recruiting good candidates.

Sounds to me like the Dems are just Biden their time until the 2016 primary season. :cam:

 

[Deacfreak07]

Sounds to me like the Dems are just Biden their time until the 2016 primary season. :cam:

 

[deacvision7]

nice joke, rj

 

[FuckmouthedRube]

Julian Castro was a huge winner last night. He won't be in the mix for the top of the ticket in 2016, but he's a lock for VP. Jeb's the only 2016 GOP contender who's close to Hillary's age. Policies matter more, but the 2016 optics aren't great for Dems with just Hillary, Reid, and Pelosi.

 

[deacvision7]

Reid and Pelosi need to step down from the leadership. No chance they will because they are egotistical blowhards that care way too much about themselves, but they should step down. Just awful, awful leadership from those two clowns.

 

[Liquid Karma]

Reid and Pelosi need to step down from the leadership. No chance they will because they are egotistical blowhards that care way too much about themselves, but they should step down. Just awful, awful leadership from those two clowns.

They should have stepped down years ago, especially Pelosi.

 

[Go]

VERY low libertarian turn out in GA. Nunn may be fucked. Of course she was going to lose in a runoff if it got there so no big problem I guess.

Libertarian in VA saved Mark Warner's bacon.

 

[PhDeac]

They should have stepped down years ago, especially Pelosi.

The Democrats have an incredibly short leadership bench. Few governors. The notable senators are either too old or too new (Cory Booker) with the important exception being Kirsten Gillabrand (Elizabeth Warren is both). The known House reps are olds and/or nut jobs and none have done anything significant except keep Pelosi in power.

Failure to develop any depth whatsoever at the national and state levels is hurting Democrats. What has the DNC been doing?

 

[Deacfreak07]

The Democrats have an incredibly short leadership bench. Few governors. The notable senators are either too old or too new (Cory Booker) with the important exception being Kirsten Gillabrand (Elizabeth Warren is both). The known House reps are olds and/or nut jobs and none have done anything significant except keep Pelosi in power.

Failure to develop any depth whatsoever at the national and state levels is hurting Democrats. What has the DNC been doing?

48 hours ago, I would have pegged Mark Warner as a promising talent, though he's almost 50.

The Castro brothers are still green, but they are young and rising.