cville deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2011
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I don't think Ohio is all that important. I think it comes down to PA. If Biden wins PA, he can lose Ohio, WI, NC, and Florida and still reach 270. I don't think MN or MI will go for Trump.
Yeah, OH is gravy, and I wouldn't pour a ton of $$ there. He can lose OH, WI, NC and FL and still win if he gets AZ. Trouble is the AZ polls have been close recently. I'm actually feeling safer these days about MN, WI and MI than PA. It's just damned difficult for either party ever to poll with > 5% lead in PA. The other state where I think it's important to spend $$ is IA because both Biden and Greenfield have held tiny leads there. And I agree PA is probably going to be the bell weather state. Hard for either to win without it.
All of that said, I still have 1 other worry that has nothing to do with the states - the SCOTUS. While they rejected hearing the PA case the other day, that decision was 4-4. Elections are left to the states, and state supreme courts should be the ultimate arbiter of state law - and were, at least until 2000. Barrett would have become the 5th vote to hear the case. It's not outside the realm of reason to believe the SCOTUS could affect the outcome of this election. At which point we have officially become a banana republic.