Playing with fivethirtyeights, mock electoral map,https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/ , I am nervously projecting a narrow 278 to 260 win by Biden. The key states in my projection are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota, where if Biden loses any of those then Trump wins. This exercise did not make me feel better about anything.
Why do you think Trump is going to run the table in nearly every blue lean state? The data suggests historic turnout and very little wavering in the national or state polls. This isn't 2016 with a clear narrowing down the stretch. If Biden gets through the debate without any issues, I think Biden will win FL, OH, AZ, GA, and maybe TX.
Why do you think Trump is going to run the table in nearly every blue lean state? The data suggests historic turnout and very little wavering in the national or state polls. This isn't 2016 with a clear narrowing down the stretch. If Biden gets through the debate without any issues, I think Biden will win FL, OH, AZ, GA, and maybe TX.
Trump ran the table on all the tossups or lean Dem but too close to call last time, so it's not irrational to worry about the same outcome this time around. In 2016 the week before the election 538 had OH, NC and FL as completely 50/50 toss ups and PA, MI, and WI as slight (<2%) Dem leads and Trump won all of them. The difference now is that PA, MN, and MI are all about >7% for the Dems, and FL and NC are ~+2.5% for the Dems in Silver's weighted average. He gives Trump a less than 1 in 10 chance of winning MN and MI and 1.3 in 10 chance of winning PA. He also gives Trump a 3 in 10 chance of winning FL and a 3.2 in 10 chance of winning NC. Of, course on election day in 2016 Silver gave Trump a 3 in 10 chance of winning the EC, so, I won't feel comfortable that Biden has this thing wrapped up until he is inaugurated and sitting in the Oval Office in January.
Nate I think had the lowest probability for a Clinton victory last time around. As you said, he had her at about 70% when most everyone else had it in the 80s or 90s.
Republican registration is up as well, and I think he has a much more fervent fan base. From what I have been reading, I do not think as many people are going to change who they voted for in the last election as we may think. Trump won Texas by 800,000 votes in 2016, Ohio by 446,000 and Georgia by 211,000.
Since 2016, I have been looking for signs that Texas, Georgia and Florida have moved far enough left to be in play, but I haven't seen that in any major races there. In Florida, I think Trump is going to do well with the Olds, the Cubans and in the north and west of the state. NC could be one that goes for Biden, but i think Arizona is more likely. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were all close last time, and with the economy the way it is, I think they will flip to Biden.
Being overseas I am not seeing the yard signs and commercials, so most of what I am reading is from national papers.
apparently one of Trump's biggest advocates has quite the compromising scene in the new Borat film, which is coming out tomorrow on Prime
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/oct/21/rudy-giuliani-faces-questions-after-compromising-scene-in-new-borat-film
I don't think Ohio is all that important. I think it comes down to PA. If Biden wins PA, he can lose Ohio, WI, NC, and Florida and still reach 270. I don't think MN or MI will go for Trump.
If Michigan or Pennsylvania go for Biden (or if the Tampa suburbs are very strong for Biden) I expect this to be a massive victory because of what it indicates for other similar demographic areas.
Got confirmation that my ballot is accepted and ready to be counted in Massachusetts. Let the Donald slaughter in the Commonwealth commence