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COVID Thread 2: Operation Ludicrous Speed ! (Super Political!!!)

2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Ha, no. I'm not a Republican and am glad that Trump is gone. I'm not sure why it is so far-fetched to say that the rubes ignored the legitimacy of Covid to everyone's detriment (the obvious deaths), while the WFHElite overhyped it to everyone's detriment (the generation of severely impacted kids, economic collapse), both groups motivated by their own biases. The truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle. Trying to justify the magic disappearance of the flu is the WFHElite version of the rube kids in the sewer.
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LOL. Arrogant Wake/Duke grad complaining about the WFHElite. That’s textbook Republican
 
The Pandemic to me is just like a story I know called ‘The Puppy Who Lost His Way.’ Normally the puppy travels in a pack of 1000 other puppies -‘society’- and along the way the puppies encounter coyotes-‘the flu’- and every year 10 of the weaker puppies are taken by the coyotes, and another 50 are injured. This year however the puppies have encountered cheetahs -‘the coronavirus’- and 100 puppies are taken by the cheetahs and 300 are injured. The cheetahs are much faster and deadlier than the coyotes. Also because the puppies learned about the cheetahs 300 of them didn’t go out this year -‘lockdowns, social distancing’-. Also the puppies now wear armor-‘face masks’-, it’s not great because puppies don’t have opposable thumbs so it’s just some mud and stuck sticks but does better against coyotes than cheetahs. Now the coyotes have nobody to attack the cheetahs have gotten there first, there are less puppies, and the puppies around are covered in armor. And nobody, especially puppies—‘society’—knew what to do next. Except that the puppy was a dog. But the pandemic, my friends, that was a revolution.
 
Tobacco Road said:
???? I'm in California and my kid is going to public school in person.

Come on, man. Facts.
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I'm wasn't referring to your specific situation in CA, numbnuts.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2021-02-09/bidens-goal-for-school-reopenings-suddenly-became-more-attainable

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN pledged to reopen the majority of elementary and middle schools for in-person learning in the first 100 days of his administration. Now, the White House has clarified that it considers a school open if it offers students in-person instruction at least one day a week – a much lower threshold than his initial pitch suggested.

"His goal that he set is to have the majority of schools, so more than 50 percent, open by Day 100 of his presidency," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday during the daily press briefing when asked what Biden's definition of reopening is. "That means some teaching in classrooms, so at least one day a week. Hopefully, it's more. And obviously it is as much as it's safe in each school and local districts."
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Why only one day a week of in-person instruction if the science proves otherwise?

Facts only, please.
 
Colonel Angus said:
I'm wasn't referring to your specific situation in CA, numbnuts.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2021-02-09/bidens-goal-for-school-reopenings-suddenly-became-more-attainable



Why only one day a week of in-person instruction if the science proves otherwise?

Facts only, please.
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First, please provide that facts of what science has "proven".

Then please present a risk analysis, i.e., how much risk should teachers assume in order to teach children in school. For example is only a 5% chance that a 62 year old teacher, three years from retirement, will catch covid from a student that comes to school sick an acceptable risk? Is 10% acceptable? What if that teacher has a diabetic spouse at home, what level of risk do they have to assume then?

Decisions like these are not a matter of facts alone. The facts inform the probabilities and the risk profile and we have to make a decision based on our risk tolerance. Ultimately it probably comes down to actuarial calculations and what kind of liability school systems are willing risk. That is, what happens when a teach dies and the family sues the school.
 
Rafi said:
2&2, why do you think there has been so little flu?

The answer is not known, but it is likely multifactorial:
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Honestly, I blame flu spread on New Zealand. Look what happened when Jacinda shut it down, no more flu!
 
birdman said:
First, please provide that facts of what science has "proven".

Then please present a risk analysis, i.e., how much risk should teachers assume in order to teach children in school. For example is only a 5% chance that a 62 year old teacher, three years from retirement, will catch covid from a student that comes to school sick an acceptable risk? Is 10% acceptable? What if that teacher has a diabetic spouse at home, what level of risk do they have to assume then?

Decisions like these are not a matter of facts alone. The facts inform the probabilities and the risk profile and we have to make a decision based on our risk tolerance. Ultimately it probably comes down to actuarial calculations and what kind of liability school systems are willing risk. That is, what happens when a teach dies and the family sues the school.
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Do you think a 23 year old teacher should get the vaccine before a 65 year old with comorbidities?

Personally, I think we should drastically reduce death and hospitalizations first by vaccinating as many 65 and up citizens as possible first. I think the spring semester is shot (no pun intended) so no need to hijack the progress we are making with seniors.
 
DeaconBrews said:
Do you think a 23 year old teacher should get the vaccine before a 65 year old with comorbidities?

Personally, I think we should drastically reduce death and hospitalizations first by vaccinating as many 65 and up citizens as possible first. I think the spring semester is shot (no pun intended) so no need to hijack the progress we are making with seniors.
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how about a 57-year old teacher vs. a 25-year old dude who happens to be 6 feet tall and 222 pounds (and therefore obese according to BMI and eligible under some states' definition of comorbid)?

according to CDC, we've given one or more doses to roughly 40% of 65+ so far, and over the past week, 2/3 of our first doses have gone to seniors. We are on pace to easily get 80%+ of seniors a first dose by 3/31, and that's with no J&J vaccine. Who should come next?
 
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thatguy2016 said:
how about a 57-year old teacher vs. a 25-year old dude who happens to be 6 feet tall and 222 pounds (and therefore obese according to BMI and eligible under some states' definition of comorbid)?
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There are no scenarios out there where this would happen unless the 25 year old is a doctor. Teachers are prioritized in every state as "essential workers." The current debate is whether teachers, where the average age in America is 42.4, should get it before 65+ Americans who have a 90x higher rate of death than the comparison group of 18-29.

I don't think teachers should jump 65+ Americans in line. We need to reduce death and hospitalization to reduce the burden our healthcare industry has been under for the last year.
 
DeaconBrews said:
There are no scenarios out there where this would happen unless the 25 year old is a doctor. Teachers are prioritized in every state as "essential workers." The current debate is whether teachers, where the average age in America is 42.4, should get it before 65+ Americans who have a 90x higher rate of death than the comparison group of 18-29.

I don't think teachers should jump 65+ Americans in line. We need to reduce death and hospitalization to reduce the burden our healthcare industry has been under for the last year.
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There are many states in which no teachers can currently receive a vaccine. Many states have tweaked "essential workers" and placed other workers (healthcare/police/fire) ahead of teachers. In Virginia, 18-65 year olds with comorbidities are eligible right now, and VA follows CDC guidelines, which list obesity as eligible.
 
thatguy2016 said:
There are many states in which no teachers can currently receive a vaccine. Many states have tweaked "essential workers" and placed other workers (healthcare/police/fire) ahead of teachers. In Virginia, 18-65 year olds with comorbidities are eligible right now, and VA follows CDC guidelines, which list obesity as eligible.
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This is false, I know a 25 year old teacher in VA that got both doses before a 60+ year old dentist.
 
The way Brews is describing is the non-political ethical determination. If things were tightly controlled it’s Frontline healthcare and public health that are directly working on covid, (that’s not admin staff and foot doctors) then it’s 65+ as well as severe co-morbidities, think things like autoimmune diseases, COPD, cancer, not BMI. After that it would be essential frontline workers like infrastructure, grocery, teachers, healthcare non-covid related, after that most likely should be tiered age structures from 55-65, 45-55, then 45 and below. Complete determination based on risk of severe disease and mortality, as well as then potential exposure.
 
thatguy2016 said:
I did not say teachers were ineligible in VA. I said that 18-65 with comorbidities are eligible in Virginia.
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Apologies. The way you wrote the last sentence made me think that you were implying that teachers are ineligible when I know that not to be the case.

Let me be clear, I want everyone to take the vaccine. It's our best chance to get back to normal. However, we have a supply problem right now. I want every 65+ year old and the people that have to treat them to get the shot first. That process has not played out yet. Teachers should not jump in line ahead of people who have a higher risk of death.

As far as your hypothetical goes, it looks like both the 18-64 comorbidity group and teachers became eligible in 1b. I hope that the healthcare provider uses discretion and gives the shot to the 57 year old first because the teacher is 30x more likely to die.
 
DeaconBrews said:
Apologies. The way you wrote the last sentence made me think that you were implying that teachers are ineligible when I know that not to be the case.

Let me be clear, I want everyone to take the vaccine. It's our best chance to get back to normal. However, we have a supply problem right now. I want every 65+ year old and the people that have to treat them to get the shot first. That process has not played out yet. Teachers should not jump in line ahead of people who have a higher risk of death.

As far as your hypothetical goes, it looks like both the 18-64 comorbidity group and teachers became eligible in 1b. I hope that the healthcare provider uses discretion and gives the shot to the 57 year old first because the teacher is 30x more likely to die.
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Have you thought about testing a vaccine infused beer?
 
DeaconBrews said:
Apologies. The way you wrote the last sentence made me think that you were implying that teachers are ineligible when I know that not to be the case.

Let me be clear, I want everyone to take the vaccine. It's our best chance to get back to normal. However, we have a supply problem right now. I want every 65+ year old and the people that have to treat them to get the shot first. That process has not played out yet. Teachers should not jump in line ahead of people who have a higher risk of death.

As far as your hypothetical goes, it looks like both the 18-64 comorbidity group and teachers became eligible in 1b. I hope that the healthcare provider uses discretion and gives the shot to the 57 year old first because the teacher is 30x more likely to die.
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The problem is that under the current system in my state (where teachers are ineligible) and I believe this is similar in most places, there is no provider level discretion. Once a group is deemed eligible, it is first come, first served. Which is why your 25 year old teacher got in ahead of the dentist. In my state, if teachers gain eligibility coincident with obese 25 year olds, whoever is better at accessing the system gets in first.

As I said, under current distribution, we should have 80% of seniors with at least one dose by the end of March. Unless of course we hit snags because, back to the Virginia example, pre-65s are able to jump the line ahead of seniors.
 
thatguy2016 said:
The problem is that under the current system in my state (where teachers are ineligible) and I believe this is similar in most places, there is no provider level discretion. Once a group is deemed eligible, it is first come, first served. Which is why your 25 year old teacher got in ahead of the dentist. In my state, if teachers gain eligibility coincident with obese 25 year olds, whoever is better at accessing the system gets in first.

As I said, under current distribution, we should have 80% of seniors with at least one dose by the end of March. Unless of course we hit snags because, back to the Virginia example, pre-65s are able to jump the line ahead of seniors.
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Actually, dentists are 1a and teachers are 1b in Virginia. The dentist put their name on a waiting list at a hospital vaccine list the first day they were eligible to and the teacher somehow got it quicker despite being in a later phase.

Yes. Those able to travel, take time off, have a better grasp of who shares vaccine availability information, and the internet literate will get it first in each phase for sure. That's why you see kids booking these appointments for their parents in a lot of places. The CDC and state healthcare departments have tried to make it as fair and scientifically sensible as they can, but there are a lot of moving parts and ultimately we need as many vaccines in arms as we can as soon as possible.

I hope the 80% of seniors number turns out to be true and that most are vaccinated fully by May (considering the 14 day waiting period post 2nd vaccination). It will save a lot of people from dying and going to the hospital.
 
Since dentists inflict pain and might enjoy that, are they vaccinated with dull, cortisone sized needles?
 
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