I love craft beer and I hope I am wrong. But, I don't think the economics will work to only sell to local restaurants and specialty stores. For one, that would require a conversion of bud / miller drinkers to craft beers at a steady rate, and most studies show that is a high hurdle to overcome. For Raleigh-Durham area alone there is like 12-15 breweries now. There just aren't enough drinkers to support the volume to only be in a small footprint long-term. If you own the brewery, you'd be barely scraping by...certainly not getting ahead of the game. Second, some (many?) of these smaller & new breweries aren't business people, which makes long-term success that much more unlikely.
Also, at a certain point, the variation between brands and special seasonal brews will not be distinguishing enough to continue to try every new beer that comes out. For instance, I've probably tried 10-12 different pumpkin beers over the last two falls. Probably 4 were great, 4 were average, and 4 were awful. Next year, I am sticking with 2 or 3 of the great ones and not bothering with the others.
If craft brew does eventually steal a measurable number of bud & miller drinkers, you will see the big boys step even more in buying the regional brands (ie, like they have done with goose island and leinenkugel) to crush the locals.
Lastly, pay attention to the pricing. Prices are going up quite a bit and are not sustainable. 6 packs prices on a per bottle basis are approaching pint at the bar prices. 22 oz bottles used to average $6.99 to $9.99. Now most run $10.99 and up. They are at the breaking point where folks are going to pull back on what they buy.
To clarify, collapse was probably too strong of a word. I can see Raleigh area with 5-7 micros in a few years...12-15 as they have now? Or more? I will be very surprised.
