Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

[morrison2951]

Cheating scandal aside, UNC has never been the academic bastion it is reputed to be. A few years back I saw where over 80% of undergraduate course grades at UNC are either a B or A; can't imagine it's that high at Wake but maybe I'm mistaken. The trick to UNC is getting admitted, then plenty of courses/majors to hide in that aren't that rigorous where you can cobble together a decent GPA.

Same goes for dook so I'm told. The trick is to get in. At Wake, back in my time, it was no easy task just to stay in.

 

[BamaDeac]

Most people will forget about this in another few years if they haven't already though to be honest.

Really sad when you think about it. UNC sold their “academic soul” for sports and no cares. It shows how powerful sports has become in this country, more so how winning in sports glosses over past scandals.

 

[Pilchard]

While it remains a big deal among hard core ACC fans, nationally no one gives a F*** about the UNC cheating scandal. Rich families from the Northeast (and all over the country) still love to send their kids to UNC and will happily pay jacked up out of state tuition. UNC remains a big brand name all over the country. Go to any major sporting event, concert, whatever... and you will see some poser clown wearing UNC garb. Adding UNC as a member to any conference would not only deliver the entire state of NC, but nationally there are people that would pay subscriber fees to see UNC play. Clemson is a football power; FSU was a football power, UNC is at best mediocre in football but UNC has national cache.

Guarantee that if Stanford joined the ACC, UNC at Maples Pavilion is a sell out. UNC is and will always be a national brand. If they stay in the ACC, the ACC stays together in some form. If UNC leaves, then UVA leaves, and the ACC disappears. That is reality.

 

[ironwill24]

I think Clemson and FSU are a bigger draw for the big ten. Sec already has a footprint in Sc and fl and don’t need to add more schools. Sec is probably pining for UNc and possibly UVA.

FSU valuation is pretty similar to Oregon. Big Ten would take FSU albeit at a reduced share rate

 

[Biff Tannen]

UNC-CH didn't even take a hit in the USNWR rankings and UNC-CH Chancellor Carol Folt got the President at Southern Cal.

 

[ironwill24]

The SEC loves having Vandy in the conference. They are located in a City with a ton of SEC alums, where SEC teams love to visit, they are punching bag, and they have the academic gravitas that no other SEC can claim.

You need opponents that you can beat. Going 7-5 at many SEC schools means the HC and the AD get fired. Who needs that?

What does having academic gravitas at a school actually do to help a conference? Honestly asking as if that is true if maybe gives us some hope.

 

[deacfan78]

The SEC loves having Vandy in the conference. They are located in a City with a ton of SEC alums, where SEC teams love to visit, they are punching bag, and they have the academic gravitas that no other SEC can claim.

You need opponents that you can beat. Going 7-5 at many SEC schools means the HC and the AD get fired. Who needs that?

SEC and B1G need punching bags so the Alabama's, Georgia's, Ohio State's, etc. have teams to beat up on each year. Question is, how long will those fans stay engaged with no parity?

 

[Atlanta Deacon]

The SEC loves having Vandy in the conference. They are located in a City with a ton of SEC alums, where SEC teams love to visit, they are punching bag, and they have the academic gravitas that no other SEC can claim.

You need opponents that you can beat. Going 7-5 at many SEC schools means the HC and the AD get fired. Who needs tha

Did Maryland win or lose? They're going to get $100,000,000 a year to be a punching bag. They don't bring any eyeballs to the B1G but they have enough money to pay for their whole athletic department and it doesn't matter if they win or lose on the field. It has to be considered a fail by the B1G adding them. Nobody gives a shit about Maryland football and they have enough shitty teams to make sure that Michigan and Ohio St. can get 10 wins.

Ultimately a super conference is about selling the games. This is NFL junior. Even the Jags are worth $3.5billion. Stupid bowls don't matter, its just about selling the marquee games at 3:30 and 7:00 pm. The conference championship is a much bigger TV draw than any none New Year's day bowl. Being one of the schools that survives to the super league is where the big payday comes in. You can go 3-9 and still make bank.

 

[wfumike02]

 

[CaptRenault]

Was sent this last night by a buddy of mine. Interesting perspective.

Dying on the ACC vine: what will Big Ten, SEC do about FSU, Clemson, and Miami?

A source with intimate knowledge of the realignment landscape in college athletics has sent us information on what could happen in the future.

www.on3.com

That's the best analysis of possible realignment futures that I have read so far.

[The B1G]: ...Sit tight and spend a few years competing as an 18-team conference with the largest television revenue contracts in college sports while you figure out how to compete against each other from one coast of the country to the other. While this is likely the Big 10’s third choice of how it wants to proceed, it is the most likely scenario under current circumstances...

...The SEC remains a 16-team conference for several years. This is the most likely scenario for the SEC, especially since the ACC exit fee and grant of rights contract effectively prohibits those schools from defecting to another conference until 2036, or at least the early 2030s. Recently, UNC’s athletic director explained the contract during an interview and estimated it would cost an institution approximately $500M to leave the ACC right now.

The SEC will remain the premier football conference in the country as a 16-team conference that now includes Texas and Oklahoma. In short, the SEC doesn’t need anyone else. Further, the conference members already enjoy significant revenue sharing that they will be careful not to dilute for each member when they consider adding new teams. SEC leaders also aren’t going to entangle itself and its members in likely protracted litigation that stems from ACC teams attempting to leave the conference or from ACC schools alleging that other conferences tortiously interfered with their league’s contract. Commissioner Sankey has repeatedly said the conference is comfortable at 16 teams and is not looking to expand. His sentiment is unanimously supported by the conference presidents, for whom he works...

 

[Deleted member 7528]

Get FSU to pay $280 million and let them out and waive GOR. Pay each remaining ACC school $10 million/year next two years on top of current distributions (presumably less for ND). Add Stanford and Cal but they come in for reduced share.

Stanford just too good of a school with too many resources to ignore. Helps keep a ND rival. Not sure FSU has anywhere good to land and if they do it will be for a reduced share of Big 10 like Oregon. Will take them at least 10 years to get back the exit fee. They flounder and it gives UNC/UVA/Clemson pause (which should happen slightly anyway with increased distributions in short term).

UNC is key. They don’t want to leave. They have long been the big draw of the ACC and have lots of power already. I cannot imagine they can stomach being a second-tier draw with minimal power in a football-first conference.

ACC needs money and time. Striking a good deal with FSU helps both. If UNC/UVA/Clemson decide to get out, ACC is over.

Until you factor in the cold, hard reality of the math, this is a good post. This part in particular is underrated.

The only sad part is we can't kick Notre Dame out. I understand that their dry humping our schedules for five nonconference games per year adds broadcasting value we can't afford to shed, but $280M divided by 14 schools barely covers the revenue gap for one year on a per-school basis. That's not going to keep Clemson in the fold.

If we were to add Stanford and Cal, I would make a 12th hour push to also add Arizona and Arizona State. Adding two makes almost no sense. Add four, make them all take a discount to board our life boat (in exchange for the promise of full membership in 2036), and create a West Coast Basketball Division.

Big Four Division
West Coast Division
Florida/Georgia/SCAR Division
Virginias/Louisville/ND
Yankee Go Home Division (Cuse, Pitt, BC, UCONN)

Divisions play home@home against themselves, and two teams from each other Division. Five division champs get autobids to NCAAT.

On the football side, 20 teams floods the t.v. inventory. Sign deals with the RingDoorbell Network, Al-Jazeera, and the Turner Classic Football Game to play Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The ratings for December bowl games show that Americans will watch an endless supply of football. It's either that or slowly get picked over by the Big10 and SEC.

 

[Sco Deac]

That's the best analysis of possible realignment futures that I have read so far.

The quote I found most interesting was, "When conference leaders discuss the possibility of adding new teams, there are two constants, 1) the SEC will only consider adding teams from the ACC IF the ACC first falls apart and teams are available to join a new conference..."

Stated differently, ESPN will not allow the SEC to poach from a viable ACC. ESPN has a cash cow with the ACC for now and has no interest in cannibalizing that asset to marginally increase its SEC asset.

 

[tigerswood]

ESPN can not afford to risk giving up all that sweet MyPillow and TacLight cash.

 

[Atlanta Deacon]

Stated differently, ESPN will not allow the SEC to poach from a viable ACC. ESPN has a cash cow with the ACC for now and has no interest in cannibalizing that asset to marginally increase its SEC asset.

This is probably right ... for now. I think ultimately college football is dead, we just don't know it yet.

 

[DemonDeke]

ESPN's role in this would be interesting. Obviously, ESPN doesn't want to renegotiate the current contract with the ACC, but on some level, they must recognize what a sweet deal they have. I wonder what the P/L statements look like for ESPN on the SEC vs. the ACC. Allowing the ACC to dissolve isn't in ESPN's interest and losing F$U to the Fox10 can't be good for ESPN. The conference will want to know the financial impact of F$U leaving before pricing a buy-out. Would ESPN provide some assurance that the current contract remains unchanged in exchange for steering F$U to the SEC? The net would be a larger per-school payout by ESPN without the network having to renegotiate the current contract.

TL/DNR: The buyout negotiation stakeholders will be the ACC, F$U, and ESPN. The win-win-win may be to move F$U to the SEC while keeping ACC contract payment levels stable.

But I still want the $130 million exit fee. But I guess you are saying that instead of FSU receiving $35 million a year from ACC TV rights, that would stay in the conference, and FSU would go to the SEC where it would somehow be added to their TV contract at presumably less than a full $60 million plus.

We lose Florida State but keep their money (for now). If the conference falls apart, then we won't have the ESPN deal nor FSU's extra $400 million.

I think I want $130 million from FSU plus $10 million a year from them for the 13 years. They can pay it on time. Plus the holding steady deal from ESPN.

Then, F-them. I'd add SMU if they wanted to join. More ACCN money (I think).

 

[DemonDeke]

I hate FSU as much as anybody but I really think y'all are nuts if you don't think the SEC is gonna jump on the chance to take FSU and Clemson when they jump ship from the ACC. I don't find the "where will FSU even go?!!?" hysteria persuasive at all.

Nobody was offering Clemson the "don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out" deal. I guess if ESPN ALSO offered to keep us whole if Clemson left, then what? I would still want all of the exit money upfront, and $10 million a year until 2036. (For Clemson, I'd make it $15 million a year - they would knock a hole in the conference. Not a fatal one, like with UNC (or a UVA/VT combo). But I think they add more value and are more vital to the ACC, and the ACC has done more for them.
These are the schools for differential revenue sharing, right? This is that principle exactly.

 

[DemonDeke]

I agree with this. Even though Clemson and FSU seem to better fit the SEC profile, that is actually why they wouldn't want them. But they would bring something new to the BIG 10. Whereas with UNC and UVa, I think that they would be attractive to either league.

I don't see Clemson being Big 10 material. They already have programs that are equivalent to them, and they are about to have a lot more money.

Maybe as a non-AAU rural buddy for Nebraska?

I think Clemson could turn out sucking in the Big 10.

FSU, not really a B10 school either. But it is Florida. If I were the B10, I'd rather have Miami.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

when Rutgers got their invite media markets mattered a lot more because most people had cable. Once things move to streaming it's much more important to have a big fanbase to buy subscriptions.

This. As the subscription service model completely overtakes the broadcast tv bundle model of revenue, “markets” and “footprint” aren’t going to mean a damn thing. The SEC simply being in Florida won’t mean as much as much when ESPN isn’t making $1 off everyone with a tv in Florida because their cable subscription carries the SEC network. Perhaps ESPN goes to an all-in model and just makes everyone pay for everything’s, but that seems likely to be unaffordable based on the individual costs of these current broadcast rights deals.

 

[DemonDeke]

Still not sure about that:

"The best scenario for the SEC is to let those three ACC schools (FSU, Clemson and Miami) die on the ACC’s proverbial vine for the next several years and never allow them admission to the SEC. They have no where else to go and the SEC can essentially eliminate three schools from the recruiting trail over time. After all, FSU, Clemson and Miami already know this is a real threat because they currently are begging the SEC for admission...."

But they wouldn't die on the vine (unless UNC and UVA leave), then the ACC will be mortally wounded and have to spread out). The B12 would take any of them anyway. They could die on that vine instead, I guess.

Clemson and FSU will always be semi-decent, even in a conference that only pulls in half what the SEC does.
That said, the SEC doesn't need either one of them. Even if they don't die on the vine.

All that said, I read online today that "three conferences" think the CFP should drop to Top 4 conference champions + 1 + 7. They are trying to grab one extra slot in one freaking quarterfinal game (or round of 12, whatever that would be called). Those are some greedy m-fers - "we want 11 of 12 slots, not 10 of 12!" Like they need either the pittance (to them) of money or their fourth best team to have a chance at the NC.

 

[Liquid Karma]

Why do people keep acting like UVA matters at all? Nobody really gives a fuck about them.