Country Dan's Version of the Debacle @ Clemson

[bcobbdeacs]

one thing, statistical analysis aside, you can't argue with is that when Codi finds a seam he can get to the hole and finish, that alone puts him head and shoulders above where TC was at any time during his WFU days, secondly, you can't argue that Codi has a much better stroke than TC ever had at Wake, and finally, Codi has some turnovers but not the TC variety of driving into the paint and losing the ball of his body out of bounds right under the hoop that we all came to love the last two years.

 

[jaybone]

How can I better articulate this...

Eric Williams was RSCI #36. That means, via the RSCI composite ranking, he was the 36th best recruit in the country in 2002.

Tyler Cavanaugh and Devin Thomas, by comparison were the 34th and 35th ranked players in their position, not even registering in a single top-100 or top-150 by a legitimate scouting service.

To compare either of those guys with Eric Williams is, frankly, ridiculous.

How can I better articulate this ...

Big E was a somewhat undersized 5 with limited hops missed a ton of layups his frosh year and finished the year averaging 8 and 4. He also got into foul trouble a lot. Devin, an undersized 5 with okay hops has missed a ton of layups his frosh year but done a pretty good job keeping out of foul trouble (until Tuesday) is averaging 6 and 7 in 4 more minutes per game. I don't give a shit about high school rankings at this point. I think it is not out of the question to think Devin can bump that up to 10 and 10. I think he'll finish this year bumping both his points and rebounds up anyway. Why argue that realistic point. I'm not sitting here writing that we should expect 16/10 from the dude.

I have a hard time being condescended to by an idiot who can honestly wax nostalgic for fucking Tony Chennault. I think you need to get over yourself and step away from your thought process for a second and read the various responses to your idiocy. Hey everyone stupid now and again. This takes stupid to it's max.

As for CMM, he was highly ranked by some not by others. He came with a rep that he was good at getting others involved. He's deferred to CJ. Next year, that will be his backcourt. Frankly, he needs to come in a little thinner; he's a bit barrel bellied this year. But if you are going to try and argue that CMM should be compared to Tony or anyone else for his sophomore bump, you're a fool. When a guy who takes a lot of shots departs, those shots go elsewhere. CMM will take some of those shots and he'll be coached by someone to be more aggressive. He is likely to find most or some of the time that line where he can be aggressive and get others involved.

Last year, the defense gave Tony the 3-point shot so all he could do in the half court set was pass around the perimeter. Our offense was stagnant. This year, CMM's outside shot is respected by the defense so he can create space for his teammates. I don't know if all that makes sense to you or comes up in your numbers, but I would think (with the exception of Tuesday night and Iona), our offensive efficiency as a team is much higher this year with six frosh playing than last year with a lot of sophomores playing

 

[HeavyPetter]

Jeff [Redacted] basically told Tony that Codi was going to start over him. I'm not sure that this would happen for, among other reasons, Codi has not been particularly good or consistent this year. Codi is starting because we don't have anybody better, not because he's earned the role.

I like Codi (and I think he's going to have a career hopefully similar to Justin Gray), but he's had two good games all year and most of his performances have been around average.

I'm just saying that Codi is not playing much better than Tony, by any metric, outside of 3FG%. You're welcome to prove me wrong, but outside of saying that I've lost it, you're not presenting much in terms of a case.

Justin Gray was on the ACC All Freshman team. Not happening. Not the same shooter. Not the same scorer.

 

[Strickland33]

No one would care if Bz could coach. Would we rather have last year's PG situation or this year's?

Frankly, I'd prefer us to have Codi, Tony, and Madison. There is no argument that Anthony Fields was not an ACC caliber point guard. I think Codi and Tony would compete for the starting position, for many of the reasons that I, MDMH, and Ph have stated. Teams are better when there's competition.

And to suggest that Madison and CMM are remotely comparable to Ish Smith and Jeff Teague is some serious Bzdelika.

 

[Strickland33]

Justin Gray was on the ACC All Freshman team. Not happening. Not the same shooter. Not the same scorer.

Okay, fine. You're entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to mine. That wasn't the point of the post, though. The point was that Codi is having a really statistically similar season to the guy that folks are ripping to pieces as a bad PG.

 

[Strickland33]

How can I better articulate this ...

Big E was a somewhat undersized 5 with limited hops missed a ton of layups his frosh year and finished the year averaging 8 and 4. He also got into foul trouble a lot. Devin, an undersized 5 with okay hops has missed a ton of layups his frosh year but done a pretty good job keeping out of foul trouble (until Tuesday) is averaging 6 and 7 in 4 more minutes per game. I don't give a shit about high school rankings at this point. I think it is not out of the question to think Devin can bump that up to 10 and 10. I think he'll finish this year bumping both his points and rebounds up anyway. Why argue that realistic point. I'm not sitting here writing that we should expect 16/10 from the dude.

I have a hard time being condescended to by an idiot who can honestly wax nostalgic for fucking Tony Chennault. I think you need to get over yourself and step away from your thought process for a second and read the various responses to your idiocy. Hey everyone stupid now and again. This takes stupid to it's max.

As for CMM, he was highly ranked by some not by others. He came with a rep that he was good at getting others involved. He's deferred to CJ. Next year, that will be his backcourt. Frankly, he needs to come in a little thinner; he's a bit barrel bellied this year. But if you are going to try and argue that CMM should be compared to Tony or anyone else for his sophomore bump, you're a fool. When a guy who takes a lot of shots departs, those shots go elsewhere. CMM will take some of those shots and he'll be coached by someone to be more aggressive. He is likely to find most or some of the time that line where he can be aggressive and get others involved.

Last year, the defense gave Tony the 3-point shot so all he could do in the half court set was pass around the perimeter. Our offense was stagnant. This year, CMM's outside shot is respected by the defense so he can create space for his teammates. I don't know if all that makes sense to you or comes up in your numbers, but I would think (with the exception of Tuesday night and Iona), our offensive efficiency as a team is much higher this year with six frosh playing than last year with a lot of sophomores playing

In regards to Eric Williams and Devin Thomas, we're not talking about Tony Chennault. You're conflating two arguments.

1) CMM is having a statistically similar season to oft-maligned Tony Chennault.

2) To gauge how our guys will improve from year one to year two, it's important to adjust for recruiting ranking. Hence, Eric Williams (RSCI top-40) is not a good comparison for Devin and Tyler (RSCI unranked and likely in the 200s). On this and other threads, I have used Vytas Danelius as an example of ideal year one to year two production from a mid-level recruit.

ETA: Eric Williams averaged 17 and 9 per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a freshman. Devin Thomas is averaging 9 and 11. The comparison is not only baseless, but unfair to Devin, as I've stated many times prior.

Get your head in the game, jay. Not sure what your problem is... Did Tony stiff you on a fantasy league or something?

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

Frankly, I'd prefer us to have Codi, Tony, and Madison. There is no argument that Anthony Fields was not an ACC caliber point guard. I think Codi and Tony would compete for the starting position, for many of the reasons that I, MDMH, and Ph have stated. Teams are better when there's competition.

Tony was leaving no matter what, again, but I'd still rather have CMM take lumps and get as many reps as possible this year. I don't even think Tony is marginally better, so what would be the purpose in playing him more?

And to suggest that Madison and CMM are remotely comparable to Ish Smith and Jeff Teague is some serious Bzdelika.

Where did this come from?

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

Okay, fine. You're entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to mine. That wasn't the point of the post, though. The point was that Codi is having a really statistically similar season to the guy that folks are ripping to pieces as a bad PG.

Through the first 4 ACC games last season, Tony: 34 points 10 assists 8 tos 40%fg. CMM's first 4: 22 points 8 assists 7 tos 28%fg

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

Through the first 4 ACC games last season, Tony: 34 points 10 assists 8 tos 40%fg. CMM's first 4: 22 points 8 assists 7 tos 28%fg

Obviously this means that CMM wouldn't play over Tony.

No. TC left because his mom has health problems. Maybe Bz was mean to him, I don't know, but that's not the main reason he left. And if you'd rather have TC taking minutes away from CMM I question your sincerity.

 

[Strickland33]

Tony was leaving no matter what, again, but I'd still rather have CMM take lumps and get as many reps as possible this year. I don't even think Tony is marginally better, so what would be the purpose in playing him more?

This ultimately comes down to opinions and hypotheticals. What I am arguing, though, seems pretty clear. That said, I don't remember Baby saying that. Maybe he did. Did he mention if [Redacted]'s comment had anything to do with his decision? It seemed to matter to Anthony and I remember folks saying that it did to Tony, too.

If you read my original post, then you'll know my beef was with how [Redacted] hyped the CMM signing publically in front of Tony and Anthony. I thought it was inappropriate and unprofessional then and now, despite whether or not CMM is better than Tony. And the numbers have made that a far more difficult conversation than any of you seem to want to have right now. Read Ph's post. You can't deny that CMM's freshman wall (if he's even hit it yet) is pretty bad.

I agree with you that CMM is a better player and prospect. It's nice to have options as as coach, though, especially when winning 10 games isn't going to cut it... It would be nice to have guys to put in front of CMM and Cav when they get into ruts. And as we've seen with both guys: these are bad ruts. Really bad ruts. We don't have that possibility and we risk, alternatively, demoralizing them by throwing them to the wolves despite their ruts. That's a really reasonable counterpoint that folks just don't seem to get.

Where did this come from?

C'mon man... Page 4:

Madison will be PG next year with Tony playing SG. We won't have the outside shooting but will be formidable defensively and plenty of ability to get in the lane and pass. CMM will certainly score more points in that role. And we'll have 2 capable non-freshman PGs on the roster which we haven't seen since Ish/ Teague.

I think that comparison, no matter how loose or precise, is absurd.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

Obviously this means that CMM wouldn't play over Tony.

No. TC left because his mom has health problems. Maybe Bz was mean to him, I don't know, but that's not the main reason he left. And if you'd rather have TC taking minutes away from CMM I question your sincerity.

You all can stick to your guns all you want, CMM is a starting point guard averaging 8 points and 2 assists a game on a terrible team. Sorry to burst your bubble, but he's not good right now, and his projections aren't great. Is he more talented than Tony Chennault was, yes. Does that mean anything on this team? No. I would honestly just like to drop this fairy tale we've got going about this recruiting class. It's a mediocre recruiting class being forced to play starters minutes.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

I only have 3 pages on this thread because that's the right way to do it, but it was odd that statement was in a reply to one of my posts. I didn't see any other references to Ish or Teague near my post either. So excuse me.

TC's mom was sick. He didn't even want to be here 2nd semester. That is a bigger deal than something Bz maybe said in front of him once.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

You all can stick to your guns all you want, CMM is a starting point guard averaging 8 points and 2 assists a game on a terrible team. Sorry to burst your bubble, but he's not good right now, and his projections aren't great. Is he more talented than Tony Chennault was, yes. Does that mean anything on this team? No.

Sticking to my guns? Your opinion, not mine: Would you rather have TC on the team this year or CMM?

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

Sticking to my guns? Your opinion, not mine: Would you rather have TC on the team this year or CMM?

CMM, definitely. He's more athletic, a better shooter, and he's got much higher upside.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

CMM, definitely. He's more athletic, a better shooter, and he's got much higher upside.

Well that's all I've been saying, along side the fact that it is well known TC left for family reasons as well.

Hopefully, CMM will get better from his struggles. IDK if he will, but we can hope, right? TC is pretty maxed out I would say from his Nova numbers.

 

[Strickland33]

A: A lot. As Jaybone mentioned, college players typically improve the most between their freshman and sophomore seasons. The most relevant example right now is Boston College. Last year they went 9-22 (4-12), ranked 259 in KenPom. They used roughly an 8 man rotation, which featured 5 freshmen playing major minutes. Hard to find a team more similar to us than that.

This year they are projected to go 13-18 (5-13), ranked 121 in KenPom (a 138 spot improvement).

The 5 freshmen, ORtg by year:

Patrick Heckmann: 87 --> 109
Ryan Anderson: 97 --> 110
Dennis Clifford: 89 --> 103
Lonnie Jackson: 102 --> 111
(Jordan Daniels is transferring)

That's fine and good, but I think you're overshooting what ORtg actually means in practice.

Ryan Anderson: 11.2 ppg --> 16.7 ppg
Patrick Heckmann: 8.3 ppg --> 8.7 ppg
Dennis Clifford: 8.9 ppg --> 5.2 ppg
Lonnie Jackson: 8.3 ppg --> 9.9 ppg

If you read my past posts on this topic, then you'll see that I used Vytas Danelius as a best case scenario for what we can reasonable expect from our bigs next year (it's a really great comparison, if not slightly overrating Devin, in particular, relative to his recruiting rank because Vytas was something like RSCI #79).

Now, Ryan Anderson is seeing significant increase in production of 5.5 ppg or 5 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted.

He is, however, averaging slightly more per game what he averaged per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a freshman. This is fairly common for mid-level recruits at Wake, too (see: Vytas's production as a best case scenario).

Nobody else on that team is really producing at a greater clip. That's the crux of my argument.

Our guys are looking at marginal bumps in production in the scheme of things. No matter how much we want to assume that it's just going to happen, BC actually proves my point..

Did you even read my initial posts? I said that we can reasonable expect one guy on our roster to have a breakout type year (i.e. 2-3 ppg over their freshman numbers pace adjusted). I'm guessing CMM is probably going to get closer to his numbers per 40 minutes pace adjusted. It seems like that breakout guy is most likely Devin, getting somewhere around the 12 and 7.5 that Vytas logged as a sophomore.

We can probably expect the other guys to see smaller bumps, bringing them into the 7-8 ppg range as opposed to their 5-6 ppg range right now.

This is incredibly wrong. Even if you have convinced yourself that their production is similar, the fact that Codi is younger, has a much higher ceiling, and a [Redacted] recruit makes it pretty clear who would start.

You just kind of jumped into this thread, but my original point was that I think it's messed up that Buzz hailed Codi as his starter and he's putting up Tony numbers... I don't doubt that CMM would start. But, it would be tough to start CMM and play him so many minutes if there was a veteran backing him up, with almost the exact same effect on games (i.e. W/S is a bad measure for guards, but their difference is marginal).

Yea. Carson is the transfer we miss the most this year, and his loss is absolutely on [Redacted].

This is true, but I was talking about [Redacted] calling CMM his starter in front of Tony and Anthony. I agree with you that Carson is both most missed and [Redacted]'s biggest personnel fail.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

Well that's all I've been saying, along side the fact that it is well known TC left for family reasons as well.

Hopefully, CMM will get better from his struggles. IDK if he will, but we can hope, right? TC is pretty maxed out I would say from his Nova numbers.

I'm just tired of being a bad young team. Our coach is using shady "win now" tactics without actually winning. You can win and be a shit head, you can lose and be a nice guy, you can't lose and be a shit head.

 

[Strickland33]

I'm just tired of being a bad young team. Our coach is using shady "win now" tactics without actually winning. You can win and be a shit head, you can lose and be a nice guy, you can't lose and be a shit head.

/thread

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

I think everyone is tired of everything. There just seems to be so much to complain about with Bz and the urge to complain about all of it.

 

[Liquid Karma]

The crying and whining about how [Redacted] may or may not have handled the gentle feelings of a career backup point guard are about #7,156 in the list of shit anyone should give two fucks about.

CMM is a no-brainer over TC. If you don't agree, good for you, I maintain you know zero about basketball if you can watch both those players and come away with that conclusion.

To argue that TC would be starting over CMM and it's "not even close" is laughable. Done arguing what should be obvious.

I hope you realize you are arguing with someone who posted that our defense was playing well when Iona was up 41-5 on us.