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MBB Game 25: @UVA - Saturday Noon - ESPN2

deacfan123 said:
Are we really sure VT and Clemson are gonna be Q1? I'm glad we don't think UVA is a must win, I just find the chances to boost our resume are getting very slim. @VT would be great to give us a Q1 win but won't impress a soul. If this isn't a must then we absolutely have to beat one of UVA and Duke. Or pick up 2 impressive wins in DC which is always tough.
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VT yes, Clemson will be close. But wins against the field are very important too and Clemson would give us that.

Of all the games left, home against Duke is clearly the most important. You get the recognition boost because people care and the metric boost.
 
deacfan123 said:
Well we need one of VT/UVA for sure then. I see VT at 62 in NET, I don't know how fast you can fall/rise but hope that stays Q1.
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VT isn’t looking that great at all and their season will be pretty much over when they lose to UNC and UVA in their next two. Not really counting on that to be a quality win.
 
Seems like we need to win a lot of games and get a lot of help to sharpen the resume.

I've been saying all season that I wouldn't be comfortable with anything less than 15-5 and a 7-0 finish is unlikely.

Current Q1 losses:
Utah (48) could easily slip to a Q2 loss which would put us at Q1 0-3 and Q2 5-5.

Current Q2 losses:
FSU (95) and UGA (96) are unlikely to bump up to Q1 losses.
State (83) needs a strong finish to be a Q1 loss.
LSU (93) is in danger of falling to a Q3 loss.

Current Q2 wins:
Florida (32) is our best chance at a Q1 win followed by UVA (41).
Miami (74) is very close to dropping to a Q3 win.
BC (91) could pull off some wins to get to Q1 but that would mean beating other teams we need to win.

Current Q3 wins:
Tech (142) is close to bumping up to a Q2 win. Every little bit helps.
 
VT is #61 in the NET Rankings. One behind NW (#60). One ahead of Ole Miss (#61). Two ahead of Oregon (#62). Five head of UCF (#66) and seven ahead of Seton Hall (#68). Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, and Big East teams will count wins over those teams on the road as Quad 1 wins. Any ACC teams winning at VT, better count such a win as a Quad 1 win too.
 
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Wakeforest22890 said:
A win tomorrow is nice. Wake makes the tournament if they go 5-2 in some order because that means we beat at least two of Duke (Q1), @ UVA (Q1), @VT (Q1), Clemson (Q1).
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So you're saying when the committee gets on their bullshit after we finish 5-2, that we have to throw a fit and sell the program to the Saudis to get out of the ACC?
 
VT’s next five games are @UNC, home vs UVA, @Pitt, @Syracuse and home vs WF. They could lose all 5 of those games. I don’t think they will but it doesn’t seem crazy that they could fall out of the top 75 by end of season.
 
First four out is where we belong. We have beat no one. But, we can change that. We will play ourselves off of the bubble in the next 2-3 weeks. Just depends which side of the bubble we fall to.
 
deacfan123 said:
First four out is where we belong. We have beat no one. But, we can change that. We will play ourselves off of the bubble in the next 2-3 weeks. Just depends which side of the bubble we fall to.
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We beat #21 UVA and kenpom #29 Florida, both by double digits.
 
I like how you use whichever ranking system fit your argument there. But both were at home and both move the needle exactly 0 in the scheme of things. Need to beat a quality opp or 2 on the road at least. Getting duke would be great at home obviously as well.
 
Wins over Florida and UVA absolutely move the needle in the scheme of things. We're just one Florida win by like 5-7 points more than their projection from that being a Q1 win. Both of those wins are going to be wins over a tournament team barring a decent collapse by either (regardless of where it falls on the Q1/Q2 scale)
 
Same situation as it has been for awhile. Go undefeated at home and beat Notre Dame. The metrics will be too strong to be left out. If they drop a game at the Joel, then it needs replaced with a win in the state of Virginia. Third place in the ACC with good metrics should be enough. Will be hard to argue for that 6th Mountain West team over that resume IMO.
 
In the above, if we lose to duke and beat only VT. We are absolutely NIT bound. Would have to win 2 good games in ACCT to even have a chance.
 
IMHO we really need 3 out of 4 of Duke, Clemson, @VT, and @UVA to feel good.
 
deacfan123 said:
In the above, if we lose to duke and beat only VT. We are absolutely NIT bound. Would have to win 2 good games in ACCT to even have a chance.
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I mean, absolutely? In your hypothetical we can still end the season with 3 Q1 wins.
 
deacfan123 said:
In the above, if we lose to duke and beat only VT. We are absolutely NIT bound. Would have to win 2 good games in ACCT to even have a chance.
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If we lose to Duke, UVA, and Clemson while we win out the rest (so 4-3 the final 7 games) we'd likely have 1 or 2 Q1 wins with a top 30-35 KP/Torvik profile, sitting at 20-11 entering the ACCT and mid to upper 30s in the NET I think that's squarely on the bubble, probably on the wrong side of it but with one ACCT win to get to 21-12 (especially if it's a borderline Q1 win, depending on who we'd beat in that one game) we're right back on the bubble. Do not see that as "absolutely" NIT bound at all but no I wouldn't feel good about it at all either
 
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