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Official 2013 NBA Draft Thread - That was great.

myDeaconmyhand said:
All valid points besides referencing the Alex Len matchup. That was Noel's first college game ever, and that was the best game of Lens season and career by far. Noel defensively dominated the rest of the year and at the time he got injured he was playing worlds better than Len.
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Just caught up on this thread. This post didn't really ring true to me, so I decided to compare the players. Looking at their Ken Pom numbers, Noel shot a bit better from the field, and swept all of the (limited) defensive metrics handily.* On the flip side, Len was more efficient on the offensive end, while playing a much larger role in the offense. He also performed better on the offensive boards, and was a vastly better FT shooter. Numbers I compiled are below.

I don't think its fair to say that he was playing "worlds better" than Len at any point last year. His last full game before the ACL injury, a 10-point win over #194 Auburn, Noel put up 10 and 12. Only took 2 shots from the field, and only had 1 block.

Additionally, while his 23 points against Kentucky were his most all year, Len finished the year by putting up 15/13/5 and 16/9/6 in the NIT quarters and semis. Also put up 20 and 7 against Carolina, 19 and 9 against Duke, and 16 and 13 against Boston College. The Kentucky game was no fluke.

*I knew Noel would win shot-blocking easily, but he also was a better defensive rebounder, and put up huge steal numbers.

Stat: Len | Noel
ORtg: 113 | 109
%POSS: 23 | 19
eFG%: 54 | 59
Orb%: 13 | 10
Drb%: 19 | 22
Blk%: 8 | 13
Stl%: 0.5 | 4
FD/40: 4.6 | 4.4
FT%: 69 | 53

Deacfreak07 said:
His guards were black holes. I watched a handful of their games and saw a great skill set. Excellent footwork and a nice touch. His guards would just put their head down and dribble around the court when he would have position established on the block. He's still a little raw, but I think he will be an excellent pro. He was the best player in the ACC this year, and it really wasn't close at all.
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How did this comment fly under the radar? Do you mean best center?
 
Noel was worlds better, streets ahead, even. Besides shooting a much better free throw percentage there is absolutely no way that Len was more efficient on offense. Nerlen was much better on defense, was a much better rebounder, and scored nearly as much as Len while strictly playing under the basket. Len took up nearly 5% more possessions, shot better on free throws, and still couldn't muster 2 more ppg? Over a player who was widely criticized for having no offensive game?
 
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Len was the focus of almost every opponent's defensive strategy.

Noel was an after thought. Plays weren't called for him. The opposition didn't have to worry about him except for filling lanes and getting put backs.

"Efficiency" does not equal value or ability. I doubt you could find any NBA GMs who would think Noel is anywhere near as good as Len offensively.
 
RJKarl said:
Len was the focus of almost every opponent's defensive strategy.

Noel was an after thought. Plays weren't called for him. The opposition didn't have to worry about him except for filling lanes and getting put backs.

"Efficiency" does not equal value or ability. I doubt you could find any NBA GMs who would think Noel is anywhere near as good as Len offensively.
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So you sound like someone who never watched a game of Noel's. The number 1 recruit in the nation just happened to be a 7ft dunk machine and he spent all his possessions under the basket. You're a damned fool if you think Noel got less focus than Len. Len is only 20 years old, if he were near the player that Noel is then he would at least be up for debate in the top 3 or 4 picks.
 
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Stonz, I meant relative to the next level. As far as raw talent and ability goes, it was Len and everyone else.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
So you sound like someone who never watched a game of Noel's. The number 1 recruit in the nation just happened to be a 7ft dunk machine and he spent all his possessions under the basket. You're a damned fool if you think Noel got less focus than Len. Len is only 20 years old, if he were near the player that Noel is then he would at least be up for debate in the top 3 or 4 picks.
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Noel was never a scorer. He's #1 due to his defense and rebounding.

You are a damned fool if you think Noel has the offensive ability of Len. He can't shoot like Len. He can't pass like Ln. He can't create his own shot like Len.

The reason Len's not Top 5 is because his defense isn't in the same league as Noel's.
 
RJKarl said:
Len was the focus of almost every opponent's defensive strategy.

Noel was an after thought. Plays weren't called for him. The opposition didn't have to worry about him except for filling lanes and getting put backs.

"Efficiency" does not equal value or ability. I doubt you could find any NBA GMs who would think Noel is anywhere near as good as Len offensively.
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that's only because the rest of his team sucked so bad
 
It was because his talents allowed him to be a college level version Pau Gasol on offense if he wasn't doubled.

It is irrational to think Noel is in Len's league offensively at this point. Conversely, Len will never be in Noel's league defensively.

Noel needs to gain 20-30 pounds by then of his second year or he'll be thrown around like a rag doll. I hope he doesn't try to gain most of it this year. It could hurt his recovery. Getting beaten up as a rookie would be fine.
 
RJKarl said:
It was because his talents allowed him to be a college level version Pau Gasol on offense if he wasn't doubled.

It is irrational to think Noel is in Len's league offensively at this point. Conversely, Len will never be in Noel's league defensively.

Noel needs to gain 20-30 pounds by then of his second year or he'll be thrown around like a rag doll. I hope he doesn't try to gain most of it this year. It could hurt his recovery. Getting beaten up as a rookie would be fine.
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I think that is the big thing with Noel, if you think about him, he has a huge bust potential where he basically doesn't ever develop any offense outside of dunking and his lack of being able to put on weight/strength not only neutralizes his only offensive ability and also renders his defense/length to not matter because he has no chance of keeping a ZBO our Gasol from getting position in the post. Throw in the the knee issue and he's a hell of a scary #1 pick.

He's got a ton of upside and all of the points I made are worst case scenarios but it still scare the crap out of me if I was a GM picking him.

Also, I thought Simmons and Zach Lowe made a great point on Noel that he was talking about wanting to add 40 pounds by the time he's back and being fully healthy and adding 25% of ones body weight in less than a year (don't think he can actually add 40 LB's but still) is an injury waiting to happen. His management/nutrition people have to be really careful with how they handle him.
 
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RJ, your premise implies that Len's offensive ability is equivalent to Nerlen's defensive ability, and that's far from true. Based on only 2/3 of a freshman season, Nerlen's offensive capability, production wise, was much closer to Len's, than Len's defense was to Nerlens. Len was a good college center, but outside of a decent jump shot, he wasn't nearly the player that Noel was.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
RJ, your premise implies that Len's offensive ability is equivalent to Nerlen's defensive ability, and that's far from true. Based on only 2/3 of a freshman season, Nerlen's offensive capability, production wise, was much closer to Len's, than Len's defense was to Nerlens. Len was a good college center, but outside of a decent jump shot, he wasn't nearly the player that Noel was.
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Any chance Noel is a bust?
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
RJ, your premise implies that Len's offensive ability is equivalent to Nerlen's defensive ability, and that's far from true. Based on only 2/3 of a freshman season, Nerlen's offensive capability, production wise, was much closer to Len's, than Len's defense was to Nerlens. Len was a good college center, but outside of a decent jump shot, he wasn't nearly the player that Noel was.
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NEVER did I say such a thing and I never would.

I would never say it note would I ever "imply"., You read it into that because you need it.
 
Noel definitely will have the #1 Uptown Fade game once he is officially in the league. Shumpert and Cole don't stand a chance. Let's talk about that instead.
 
TheIshThatSaved WakeForest said:
Getting mdmh's opinion on Noel is like getting my opinion on Ish or Bill Moto.
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I've seen them both play multiple times and i've seen the stats. Len could turn into Pau Gasol while Noel busts for all I know, that wouldn't change the fact Noel was still a much better college player.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Any chance Noel is a bust?
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Certainly the injury factor, but his defense/rebounding should translate well. He reminds me a lot of Tyson Chandler, but it certainly took Chandler a while to get acclimated to the NBA.

ETA: I think injury is the only risk. Worst case I think he's an outstanding defensive player. That being said, I don't see a tremendous about of upside in his offensive game and he will never be the best player on an NBA Finals team.
 
I feel like Noel is halfway between John Henson and Unibrow. Although Henson developed his outside game a bit at the end of his UNC career. Either way it will be a while before he's a big factor in the NBA, if ever.
 
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