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Official US Soccer / World Cup '26 Thread (USA vs. Mexico 3/24 in Dallas)

A fight might break out in the second half of this one if he doesn’t call it a bit more tightly.
 
DeacMan said:
The officiating in this tournament has been so incredibly uneven, even within games. The MLS ref who had the Portugal/Ghana game was absolutely awful. The guy who had the Uruguay/South Korea game should be handed the final right now.
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I thought the Iran/Wales official was good as well. Missed one or two but let them play.
 
People suggesting we rest guys on yellows because of Iran. It's once every four years (in our case 8). You play the team you believe gives you the best shot at a result today.
That being said I would like to see us sit one of Musah or McKennie in favor of Reyna or AAron, but I tend to doubt Greggggggg views things that way. Won't matter if our players deal with pressure as unevenly as they did in the second half of the last game. England will create a lot more chances if our guys turn it over than Wales ever could.
 
This sums it up to me. You do whatever gives you the best chance of advancing.
 
DeacMan said:
People suggesting we rest guys on yellows because of Iran. It's once every four years (in our case 8). You play the team you believe gives you the best shot at a result today.
That being said I would like to see us sit one of Musah or McKennie in favor of Reyna or AAron, but I tend to doubt Greggggggg views things that way. Won't matter if our players deal with pressure as unevenly as they did in the second half of the last game. England will create a lot more chances if our guys turn it over than Wales ever could.
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Very good post. We could get a bullshit (or deserved) penalty call against us 2 minutes in against Iran. You never know. Several years ago we took the game right at Italy and deserved 3 points.
 
Netherlands has not looked spectacular through 1.5 matches

Ecuador however has been fun to watch
 
IAppreciateIt said:
aight.

if we beat england (15%), we have an 81% chance to advance. 12% chance of this happening.

if we don’t beat england but beat iran (85% x 55% = 47%), we have a 100% chance to advance with a draw vs england (23%) or ~90% with a loss (60%). so on aggregate, 42% of this happening.

if we don’t win either, 0% of advancing. 85% x 45% = 38%

so actually a 54% of advancing. and the remaining 8% is winning a match and still not advancing.

eta: this was all wrong
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jeez i effed this up again for anyone following along.

ok here we go, figured it out in the shower:

there is a 49% chance we advance just from the wales and iran games.

there is an additional 6% chance we advance with a draw vs england, so not meaningless.

of the remaining 45% (aka we didn’t beat iran), there is another ~5% we advance thanks to a win over england.

so ~60% total probability to advance, which drops to 49% with a loss today.

as usual in cases like this, that seems significant enough to where you should really try to beat england. and even the draw helps.
 
I feel like what is missing in these analyses is how much the lineup changes impact win probability in each game. It's not even clear to me that resting a semi-fit Weston decreases our win probability all that much against England, he might have been rotated anyway. Dest also doesn't seem 100% fit to me. Can always bring one or both on depending on the texture of the game. It's not like you are just punting the game without them.
 
tiltdeac said:
I feel like what is missing in these analyses is how much the lineup changes impact win probability in each game. It's not even clear to me that resting a semi-fit Weston decreases our win probability all that much against England, he might have been rotated anyway. Dest also doesn't seem 100% fit to me. Can always bring one or both on depending on the texture of the game. It's not like you are just punting the game without them.
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totally agree, but wouldn’t that apply to a potential yellow card suspension too, right?

i think the probabilities suggest you play the team you would normally, at least unless you go down a couple goals
 
I guess the way I think about it is that given the expected outcomes in both games, a tiny incremental increase in win probability in the Iran game has a much bigger expected value than the same increase in the England game.

It's like the opposite of when dumb coaches sit players for huge chunks of time for foul trouble. In this case the late game minutes (Iran game) really are way more valuable, and it's probably worth sacrificing something for them. Maybe I'm dumb and the numbers wouldn't work out this way I dunno.
 
Whelp, Gregg going all in on an England win. Haji for Sargent, rest is the same?? Crazy.
 
tiltdeac said:
I guess the way I think about it is that given the expected outcomes in both games, a tiny incremental increase in win probability in the Iran game has a much bigger expected value than the same increase in the England game.

It's like the opposite of when dumb coaches sit players for huge chunks of time for foul trouble. In this case the late game minutes (Iran game) really are way more valuable, and it's probably worth sacrificing something for them. Maybe I'm dumb and the numbers wouldn't work out this way I dunno.
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yeah that’s true, my estimate is that the iran game has about 4x more leverage than the england game. (and even if you beat england, you still likely need at least a draw vs iran)

i guess it also depends on the probability of those guys picking up a second yellow (as well as any impact on their play).
 
HuskyDeac said:
This sums it up to me. You do whatever gives you the best chance of advancing.
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Still need England to take care of business in this scenario

likely, but crazier upsets have happened (in this tournament)

kinda candy-ass to play for that scenario
 
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