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Steve Forbes credibility watch

PhDeac said:
If Wake basketball has stayed much more valuable than it was 20 years ago, have any programs lost value?
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I mean, programs that didn't put together enough wins to be top 5-10 in KP and reach number 1 in the country over that time period have lost way more value. So I'd say a decent number of them? Although the system may be skewed towards higher tier teams given the number of Tier 1 opportunities they'd have versus Tier 4?
 
PhDeac said:
If Wake basketball has stayed much more valuable than it was 20 years ago, have any programs lost value?
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well they lost 73% of the value after 2010.
i can compare to other teams. the initial boost from my starting point probably skewed the overall data
 
HS recruiting has to get better. Have we gotten any top-100 HS recruits under Forbes? Granted this is largely an NIL thing.
 
WakeForest Fan said:
so i got bored last night after the thrilling victory. decided to completely waste my time on something that means absolutely nothing - but i would do it again (have before). ha. no clue why i'm posting it either.

i charted wake forest basketball over the last 20 years (excluded forbes first year due to pandemic) as if it were a stock. started at $100 per share and adjusted on a per game basis. i used kenpom ratings with quadrant definitions (since the net is new). so a top 30 kenpom home game would be quad one and so forth on rest of the quad definitions.
i then included scoring margin and gave each result a percentage gain/loss. a 20+point quad one victory would get a 5% gain, while a 20+ point quad four loss would have a 5% loss (different "returns" for everything in between - those were the two extremes).
from a peak of $965.71 per share after beating Clemson at home in Dino's final year, buzzdick turned that into $384.88 per share after losing to Pitt in the ACC Tournament (his last game). mannequin said hold my beer and after losing to Pitt in his final game, the share price was $263.41
buzzdicks first two years were atrocious (shocker). rock bottom (or max drawdown from 2010 peak) was losing at home to Georgia Tech (86-79) in mannequins final season.
buzzdick and mannequin didn't have a single 20+ point quad one victory (5% gain) but had several bad losses (ie - losing by 28 to a 10-21 arizona st team)
i have another that excludes margin of victory/defeat (straight quad win/loss) and forbes tenure shows a much larger bounce than this one because the drawdown wasn't as severe. reason being not only were mannequin and buzzdick losing, they were losing by big margins. for example, during a five game losing streak in buzzdicks first year wake lost by an average of 25.6 points per game. not be outdone, during a 1-4 stretch for mannequin (where they did beat pitt by only two) in the four losses wake lost by an average of 28.8 points


View attachment 2259
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Wow, this is awesome. Well done. Also, I’m going to go take a swig of Vodka
 
WakeForest Fan said:
so i got bored last night after the thrilling victory. decided to completely waste my time on something that means absolutely nothing - but i would do it again (have before). ha. no clue why i'm posting it either.

i charted wake forest basketball over the last 20 years (excluded forbes first year due to pandemic) as if it were a stock. started at $100 per share and adjusted on a per game basis. i used kenpom ratings with quadrant definitions (since the net is new). so a top 30 kenpom home game would be quad one and so forth on rest of the quad definitions.
i then included scoring margin and gave each result a percentage gain/loss. a 20+point quad one victory would get a 5% gain, while a 20+ point quad four loss would have a 5% loss (different "returns" for everything in between - those were the two extremes).
from a peak of $965.71 per share after beating Clemson at home in Dino's final year, buzzdick turned that into $384.88 per share after losing to Pitt in the ACC Tournament (his last game). mannequin said hold my beer and after losing to Pitt in his final game, the share price was $263.41
buzzdicks first two years were atrocious (shocker). rock bottom (or max drawdown from 2010 peak) was losing at home to Georgia Tech (86-79) in mannequins final season.
buzzdick and mannequin didn't have a single 20+ point quad one victory (5% gain) but had several bad losses (ie - losing by 28 to a 10-21 arizona st team)
i have another that excludes margin of victory/defeat (straight quad win/loss) and forbes tenure shows a much larger bounce than this one because the drawdown wasn't as severe. reason being not only were mannequin and buzzdick losing, they were losing by big margins. for example, during a five game losing streak in buzzdicks first year wake lost by an average of 25.6 points per game. not be outdone, during a 1-4 stretch for mannequin (where they did beat pitt by only two) in the four losses wake lost by an average of 28.8 points


View attachment 2259
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Also, if you took the titling off, one may assume this is DR’s giving history to WF. The peak would be $5K back in 2010 when ambulance chasing paid well. Adjusted for inflation now, he’s probably giving $18.34/month give or take.
 
Where do I buy a credibility watch?

It would be pretty cool to have. I could walk around and as I approached various people it would let me know whether they were credible or not as they talked (maybe even from their body language or aura). I have a pretty good BS meter but combined with a credibility watch, I'd be unstoppable. It would be cool to have it on near one of those people on megahorns shouting out religious stuff at sporting events.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Gaudio's worst season (2008) ranks as the third best overall Wake team has had in Torvik since that season. We made the tournament his last year and have made it to one NCAA Tournament sense. Perhaps Dino's teams were "poor" relative to Odom and Prosser's, but...I don't think it's fair to point a finger at Dino for on the court results.
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Exactly. 61-31 overall plus he won a NCAA game while at Wake
 
The Big Short: WF Basektball in the Post-Gaudio era
By: Michael Lewis
 
ProbationDeac said:
Agreed. We need a mix of transfer portal and high school recruits.
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Four HS recruits for fall 21. (Two Euro, two U.S) Two for fall 22. (One Euro, one U.S). One HS player so far for 23.

HS players will be easier to recruit as they see Wake have success on the court and it becomes obvious that NIL deals are available at Wake.
 
What's the deal with foreign players and NIL? I remember there being an issue with Oscar Tshiebwe trying to benefit from that.

Can Hildreth, Marsh, and Klintman get the same deals?
 
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