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Wake (#9 CFP, #5 SOR) at UNC (UNC-2.5) 12:00 noon, ABC

JKW385 said:
Awesome to see Greer back out there against Duke even in limited action.
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If he can get up to speed - and stay healthy, I think we will see the defense take a big jump. Kind of the opposite of what happened when Strnad got hurt in 2019.
 
TownieDeac said:
their 10-3 clemson game is still weird to me
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Not really. Both teams have great defenses. I think UGA was still figuring out their QB situation as well.
 
I'm more surprised that Clemson managed to score 3 points with how bad their offense has been.
 
PhDeac said:
Not really. Both teams have great defenses. I think UGA was still figuring out their QB situation as well.
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does clemson have a great defense? a top 25 defense, sure.

they gave up 20 to FSU, we gave up 14. they gave up 27 to pitt and nc state. giving up 323 yards per game. feels like they've done a good job keeping teams out of the end zone and keeping to a low yards per play. 48th in the country in passing yards allowed, 21st in rush yards.

wake has forced 17 turnovers to clemson's 12. it's not terrifying stuff like you'd expect them to hold the best team in the country to 10 points.
 
Clemson's bad offense puts more pressure on their defense. I would agree that they have a great defense, and it will be a lot of fun to watch how we do against them.
 
I'm also worried about this game. Howell gets way too much love from the national media types, but he can sling it and is deceptively fast/strong when he decides to run. The latter gives me concern more than the former for Saturday. The way our pass rush has stalled along with the overall below average play from our LBs the last 3-4 games puts a ton of pressure on our secondary to cover. I'd expect UNC to work the middle of the field and also run Howell a good amount. Hopefully we can force a turnover or two and stomp on them early in the game.
 
TownieDeac said:
does clemson have a great defense? a top 25 defense, sure.

they gave up 20 to FSU, we gave up 14. they gave up 27 to pitt and nc state. giving up 323 yards per game. feels like they've done a good job keeping teams out of the end zone and keeping to a low yards per play. 48th in the country in passing yards allowed, 21st in rush yards.

wake has forced 17 turnovers to clemson's 12. it's not terrifying stuff like you'd expect them to hold the best team in the country to 10 points.
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#2 in the nation in defensive red zone efficiency, allowing 3 points per trip to red zone (UGA #1 at 2.86)

NCAA stat accounting is a bit more simplistic counting TD's and FG's equally - in that accounting Clemson is #5 nationally but #2 among P5

#3 nationally in scoring defense and that includes 2 pick-6's (including one against UGA)

FEI says Clemson's defense is #4 nationally

FPI says Clemson's D is #6 nationally
 
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TownieDeac said:
their 10-3 clemson game is still weird to me
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TownieDeac said:
does clemson have a great defense? a top 25 defense, sure.

they gave up 20 to FSU, we gave up 14. they gave up 27 to pitt and nc state. giving up 323 yards per game. feels like they've done a good job keeping teams out of the end zone and keeping to a low yards per play. 48th in the country in passing yards allowed, 21st in rush yards.

wake has forced 17 turnovers to clemson's 12. it's not terrifying stuff like you'd expect them to hold the best team in the country to 10 points.
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3 points. UGA's TD was a pick 6.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
and our offense is also incredibly reliant on hartman which, in theory, increases the chances of having an off-day.
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add to that the Army and Duke defensive plans, such as they were, appeared to be to force Hartman to complete the deep ball. Which he did with ease. However, generally if it is third down I don't love my QB throwing the ball 30 yards to a well-covered man (UNC, Clemson, NC State should be better able to cover us than Army/Duke)
 
DeaconSig said:
I mean, no. Every game is our super bowl from here on out. If we go undefeated, then we play in the CFP. If we lose one of the next 3, we don't.

Fuck that noise. We need to go 4-0.
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5-0
 
Both WF and UGA have essentially shutdown their offense in several games (admittedly, UGA more than WF), which is among the reasons both teams continue to cover ATS as the stats and power ratings typically assume that all final game scores and yardage totals are the same. WF could have and would have scored more points and gained more yards against every opponent if WF had continued to keep its foot on the gas (except for L'ville and Army where WF played maximum offensive effort for the entire game) if it needed to. Instead WF has been up by comfortable margins by the third quarter in most of its games. So, the final stats don't fully reflect WF's dominance (e.g., the 4th quarter at UVA or even the 4th quarter against Duke this past Saturday). Teams like UNC have either lost or won games decided late, and as a result, they have played with maximum offensive effort for 60 minutes in far more games than WF has to date.
 
inspectah said:
We have struggled to stop good teams for the last six weeks. If the defense plays to type and the offense has an off day, we're in trouble.
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Our last 6 games include Duke, FSU and UVA, none of which we struggled to stop...

I know you said "good teams", but you also said 6 weeks, so it's not clear who you're referring to.
 
Clemson was also leading the nation in Field Goal % against which basically means they got lucky and the other teams missed a bunch of field goals. That's not going to happen against us.
 
Pilchard said:
Both WF and UGA have essentially shutdown their offense in several games (admittedly, UGA more than WF), which is among the reasons both teams continue to cover ATS as the stats and power ratings typically assume that all final game scores and yardage totals are the same. WF could have and would have scored more points and gained more yards against every opponent if WF had continued to keep its foot on the gas (except for L'ville and Army where WF played maximum offensive effort for the entire game) if it needed to. Instead WF has been up by comfortable margins by the third quarter in most of its games. So, the final stats don't fully reflect WF's dominance (e.g., the 4th quarter at UVA or even the 4th quarter against Duke this past Saturday). Teams like UNC have either lost or won games decided late, and as a result, they have played with maximum offensive effort for 60 minutes in far more games than WF has to date.
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Yeah. ESPN's FPI is BS but their other metrics reflect this. We're #5 in Strength of Record, Game Control, and Win Probability Rank. Georgia is #1 in each and Alabama is the only other team in the top 5 in those categories.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume/sort/resume.gamecontrolrank/dir/asc


SOR:Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule.

  • GC:Game Control rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.
  • AVGWP:Team's average in-game win probability rank adjusted for chance that an average FBS team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.
 
thatguy2016 said:
add to that the Army and Duke defensive plans, such as they were, appeared to be to force Hartman to complete the deep ball. Which he did with ease. However, generally if it is third down I don't love my QB throwing the ball 30 yards to a well-covered man (UNC, Clemson, NC State should be better able to cover us than Army/Duke)
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Agreed. Not only are deep throws more likely to get picked off against a better defense but the longer Sam is in the pocket- more likely he takes a shot and gets hurt. Will need short passes down the stretch.
 
thatguy2016 said:
#2 in the nation in defensive red zone efficiency, allowing 3 points per trip to red zone (UGA #1 at 2.86)

NCAA stat accounting is a bit more simplistic counting TD's and FG's equally - in that accounting Clemson is #5 nationally but #2 among P5

#3 nationally in scoring defense and that includes 2 pick-6's (including one against UGA)

FEI says Clemson's defense is #4 nationally

FPI says Clemson's D is #6 nationally
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PhDeac said:
3 points. UGA's TD was a pick 6.
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fair enough! i haven't seen them play, just doesn't feel like a vintage clemson team to me
 
thatguy2016 said:
add to that the Army and Duke defensive plans, such as they were, appeared to be to force Hartman to complete the deep ball. Which he did with ease. However, generally if it is third down I don't love my QB throwing the ball 30 yards to a well-covered man (UNC, Clemson, NC State should be better able to cover us than Army/Duke)
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I think/hope we’ll see a few more offensive wrinkles down the stretch. Although it has been fun to just straight dial up deep shots the last few weeks.
 
I know we’re getting ahead of ourselves but you can imagine the Mesh/RPO against Georgia? Have a feeling it would give them fits - not to mention Kirby Smart probably thinks the Deacs are Lake Forest as in Lake Forest, IL.
 
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