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Wake Forest Basketball - '23-24 Schedule Thread

Cool, so the schedule hits our NET rating, and then we will get hit double when the dolts on the selection committee look at our 250th ranked NC SOS like it is a separate variable.

More so than winning, this is the thing MOST in our control. And we botch it.

Like its 2022 again. We better be winning 24-25 games.
 
Cool, so the schedule hits our NET rating, and then we will get hit double when the dolts on the selection committee look at our 250th ranked NC SOS.

Like its 2022 again. We better be winning 24-25 games.
This is what it seems like they don't understand. The same games count against the program multiple times over.

1. Fans don't show up. Fans may show for Rutgers on Dec 6 but not NJIT, DSU, and PC until the first home ACC game. That risks losing momentum. Schedule in-state teams around the holidays instead.
2. The games don't matter. Winning by <20 hurts but winning by more has no benefit.
3. The games hurt or don't help SOS.
4. The games hurt or don't help NET.
5. The games hurt or don't help other metrics.
6. It's too many Q4 wins and not enough Q2 games
7. It feeds the weak ACC narrative.
8. It makes non-con major conference games must win games.
 
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Cool, so the schedule hits our NET rating, and then we will get hit double when the dolts on the selection committee look at our 250th ranked NC SOS like it is a separate variable.

More so than winning, this is the thing MOST in our control. And we botch it.

Like its 2022 again. We better be winning 24-25 games.
the bolded part is why when someone says, "eh, just pound the bad teams", that is an uninformed take.

Terrible scheduling.
 
Cool, so the schedule hits our NET rating, and then we will get hit double when the dolts on the selection committee look at our 250th ranked NC SOS like it is a separate variable.

More so than winning, this is the thing MOST in our control. And we botch it.

Like its 2022 again. We better be winning 24-25 games.
The big difference is (if they do win 24-25 games) the NCSOS is at least 100 spots higher.
 
the bolded part is why when someone says, "eh, just pound the bad teams", that is an uninformed take.

Terrible scheduling.
Well, that is the way you avoid the former problem Haros points out (having the bad teams impact your NET). If you're underperforming against a bad opponent compared to how other teams play them then you're generally going to be (should be?) negatively impacted.

But overall I think they need to just scrap having NCSOS and maybe even SOS on the team sheets if they're also incorporated properly into the NET (this remains to be seen)
 
There are lots of things that go into scheduling - its easy to look at it after the fact and complain about the teams that we are and aren't playing, but that doesn't take into account things like payouts, expected ticket sales, travel and class schedules, television network demands, basic desire to play against us, etc.
 
We can all disagree until the day we die about the NET and how good or bad it is, but we know they are using it, and yet we still keep choosing to trip all over ourselves to create a schedule that will hurt us come tourney time if/when we are on the bubble.
 
There are lots of things that go into scheduling - its easy to look at it after the fact and complain about the teams that we are and aren't playing, but that doesn't take into account things like payouts, expected ticket sales, travel and class schedules, television network demands, basic desire to play against us, etc.
Well sure but plenty of teams are putting together schedules that don't include 5 teams outside the top 300 in the country. This may be a valid point regarding "why don't we specifically play team X" but not really for "why aren't we playing more teams in the 175-275 projected ranking spots"
 
There are lots of things that go into scheduling - its easy to look at it after the fact and complain about the teams that we are and aren't playing, but that doesn't take into account things like payouts, expected ticket sales, travel and class schedules, television network demands, basic desire to play against us, etc.
Right, and all those things are made a lot easier if we could make the tournament more than once every 15 years. I refuse to believe that the MWC can do that (especially considering they are spread out way more than we are geographically when it comes to getting teams in than we are here), and we keep stubbing our toe with Delaware fucking State.

I would rather us schedule straight up home and aways with 200-250 ranked KP teams than keep scheduling 300+ KP teams.

Other programs have figured out how to rig the system in our favor, so why haven't we? I don't want excuses, I want results on the floor, and I want our admin to give our team the best chance to make the tourney that they can.

We have done some really, really good things under Currie (and I know this doesn't necessarily fall directly under his purview), but we've GOT to figure out how to have basketball success, and a lot of that has to do with scheduling when you're trying to get over the hump.
 
Well, that is the way you avoid the former problem Haros points out (having the bad teams impact your NET). If you're underperforming against a bad opponent compared to how other teams play them then you're generally going to be (should be?) negatively impacted.

But overall I think they need to just scrap having NCSOS and maybe even SOS on the team sheets if they're also incorporated properly into the NET (this remains to be seen)

but the point is that in addition to impacting the NET, the selection committee then pulls out the NCSOS (which is baked into the NET) as a separate line item and punishes teams with poor NCSOS
 
Well sure but plenty of teams are putting together schedules that don't include 5 teams outside the top 300 in the country. This may be a valid point regarding "why don't we specifically play team X" but not really for "why aren't we playing more teams in the 175-275 projected ranking spots"
I mean, I also don't have access to the bottom line - we've been a trash program for so long it may simply be that based on projected ticket sales we can only afford to play trash teams in non-conference because the schools in the 175-275 range simply want larger payouts (I would not be surprised if there is a certain sweet spot in the rankings where teams who are rated worse can charge more because they know they will be in high demand because they're considered winnable games that won't affect your metrics).
 
I mean, I also don't have access to the bottom line - we've been a trash program for so long it may simply be that based on projected ticket sales we can only afford to play trash teams in non-conference because the schools in the 175-275 range simply want larger payouts (I would not be surprised if there is a certain sweet spot in the rankings where teams who are rated worse can charge more because they know they will be in high demand because they're considered winnable games that won't affect your metrics).
I'd be shocked if there's a major difference in pay "accepted" from Western Carolina, USC Upstate, Howard, Delaware State, Grambling etc.
 
Refuse to believe that the payout for scheduling Norfolk State at home is that different than playing NJIT at home. WF is in the ACC; we can't afford to pay NC Central or Queens College to play at WF? Really?
 
Right, and all those things are made a lot easier if we could make the tournament more than once every 15 years. I refuse to believe that the MWC can do that (especially considering they are spread out way more than we are geographically when it comes to getting teams in than we are here), and we keep stubbing our toe with Delaware fucking State.

I would rather us schedule straight up home and aways with 200-250 ranked KP teams than keep scheduling 300+ KP teams.

Other teams have figured it out, so why haven't we. I don't want excuses, I want results on the floor, and I want our admin to give our team the best chance to make the tourney that they can. We have done some really, really good things under Currie (and I know this doesn't necessarily fall directly under his purview), but we've GOT to figure out how to have basketball success, and a lot of that has to do with scheduling when you're trying to get over the hump.
The bigger issue with it is it doesn't do you much positive and gives you a lot more of a downside. MIzzou is a good example: they went 24-9 last year and had a NET OOC SOS of 210, 27th on the seed list. Penn State went 22-13, 34th on the seed list, OOC SOS of 277(!) Providence had a non conference SOS of 283, 2 Q3 losses, and 3 Q1 wins, 42nd on the seed list.

If you're above the 200 mark in the NCSOS(which this schedule is even before adjusting for teams that should be better/worse) you're in a pretty spot. You scheduling better teams in the 200s to get down from like 190 to 140 doesn't make a huge difference and if you lose one of those games (similar to scheduling an App in football) you're screwed.

Is the schedule perfect? No. It's meh, but until the ACC moves to 18 games or Wake wins more, it's going to be meh.
 
The bigger issue with it is it doesn't do you much positive and gives you a lot more of a downside. MIzzou is a good example: they went 24-9 last year and had a NET OOC SOS of 210, 27th on the seed list. Penn State went 22-13, 34th on the seed list, OOC SOS of 277(!) Providence had a non conference SOS of 283, 2 Q3 losses, and 3 Q1 wins, 42nd on the seed list.

If you're above the 200 mark in the NCSOS(which this schedule is even before adjusting for teams that should be better/worse) you're in a pretty spot. You scheduling better teams in the 200s to get down from like 190 to 140 doesn't make a huge difference and if you lose one of those games (similar to scheduling an App in football) you're screwed.

Is the schedule perfect? No. It's meh, but until the ACC moves to 18 games or Wake wins more, it's going to be meh.
I don't get this. A win over the #333 team is worse than a loss to a top 10 team. As far as the risk of losing to a #150-200 team, so what? Don't lose. Setting up a schedule where your team is punished for winning is absurd. Like I said before, this is an easy fix to the ACC woes. Winning is tough, but at least set up teams for success by making the wins matter.
 
The bigger issue with it is it doesn't do you much positive and gives you a lot more of a downside. MIzzou is a good example: they went 24-9 last year and had a NET OOC SOS of 210, 27th on the seed list. Penn State went 22-13, 34th on the seed list, OOC SOS of 277(!) Providence had a non conference SOS of 283, 2 Q3 losses, and 3 Q1 wins, 42nd on the seed list.

If you're above the 200 mark in the NCSOS(which this schedule is even before adjusting for teams that should be better/worse) you're in a pretty spot. You scheduling better teams in the 200s to get down from like 190 to 140 doesn't make a huge difference and if you lose one of those games (similar to scheduling an App in football) you're screwed.

Is the schedule perfect? No. It's meh, but until the ACC moves to 18 games or Wake wins more, it's going to be meh.
Some of that’s probably right, but I’ll push back with 1 comment and one question:

1 comment - the teams you referenced were in conferences ranked 2,3,4 in NET/KenPom. They get the benefit of the doubt when performing well in those conferences and winning enough Q1/Q2 games. Where it matters is if your conference isn’t performing at that level and you thus don’t have the opportunities to win enough of those games. Which is where the ACC has been the last two years.

1 question - are we sure that’s a top 200 SOS? Where are you seeing that? The 5 bottom feeders (instead of 2, out of 11 games) feel like they’ll drag our SOS to below last year’s, or at least could — and we had the #233 NC SOS last year.
 
Some of that’s probably right, but I’ll push back with 1 comment and one question:

1 comment - the teams you referenced were in conferences ranked 2,3,4 in NET/KenPom. They get the benefit of the doubt when performing well in those conferences and winning enough Q1/Q2 games. Where it matters is if your conference isn’t performing at that level and you thus don’t have the opportunities to win enough of those games. Which is where the ACC has been the last two years.

1 question - are we sure that’s a top 200 SOS? Where are you seeing that? The 5 bottom feeders (instead of 2, out of 11 games) feel like they’ll drag our SOS to below last year’s, or at least could — and we had the #233 NC SOS last year.
Correct they do get the benefit of the doubt. But there’s two ways to fix that perception. 1) schedule harder and win or 2) stop losing the crappy games you schedule. I’d rather bet on just stop losing to the crappy teams (Clemson’s resume last year comes to mind) than completely reverse course and say “screw it let’s take on some harder competition. I can see that side of the coin and don’t think it’s a bad strategy but I do think it can be flawed.

On the SOS portion I just pulled everyone’s NET from last year and then took the average of the CC teams - Wake (which ended up being 79, I rounded up to 80) came in at 199 and that’s without expecting teams like LSU/St johns/UGA/Florida to improve.
 
I can take a look at where this ballpark would have put us last year later, but here's the KP from last year (obviously some teams will be better/worse and we don't know our opponents for Charleston):

Elon: 337
Georgia: 154
Three games against: 2 (Houston), 31 (North Texas), 79 (Dayton), 151 (LSU), 82 (St. Johns), 127 (Towson), 75 (Utah)
Charleston Southern: 302
Florida: 74
Rutgers: 39
NJIT: 330
Delaware State: 356
Presbyterian: 344

Florida should be much improved. No idea what to expect from the five 300+ teams, but it's unlikely more than one of those teams finishes better than 300 given their program trajectories.

I don't know where this puts an OOC schedule honestly. Probably around 200? But 5 of the 11 games are against teams outside the top 300 (45%)
 
Cam, scheduling harder and losing gets more credit than beating bad teams. Losing to sub-300 teams isn't a problem for Wake anymore but scheduling those games hurts the program.
 
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