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Wake Forest Basketball - '23-24 Schedule Thread

This schedule looks somewhat similar to 2020 KP wise (yes NET Is what matters obviously, just using this for proxy). We had four OOC games against teams 287-302 (but none worse), two games against teams 164-170 (one was a road game), and then the last four games were against 19, 26, 45, and 70. That was 153rd OOC SOS in KP
 
PhDeac said:
I don't get this. A win over the #333 team is worse than a loss to a top 10 team. As far as the risk of losing to a #150-200 team, so what? Don't lose. Setting up a schedule where your team is punished for winning is absurd. Like I said before, this is an easy fix to the ACC woes. Winning is tough, but at least set up teams for success by making the wins matter.
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If scheduling like that was absurd, people wouldn’t schedule like that after talking thinks over with the conference and the NCAA. You’re only punished for winning if that’s all you schedule (being like 250ish) AND you have no good wins

Spin it this way, if you set yourself up with a pretty difficult OOC there are four ways it can go:

Win in non con and win in league, golden option
Win in non con and lose in league, pretty standard case of “well they played themselves out of the tournament”
Lose in non con and win in league, probably find yourself on the bubble and you’re in god’s hands there of if you actually make it.
Lose in both, done.

You have one good result, 2 bad results, and one coin flip. That is not setting yourself up for success especially if you do not have the pedigree to let people give you the benefit of the doubt.
 
Could this have been affected by whatever we may have had to pay to get out of that one shitty tournament? Or are we talking pocket change here?
 
Haros said:
Some of that’s probably right, but I’ll push back with 1 comment and one question:

1 comment - the teams you referenced were in conferences ranked 2,3,4 in NET/KenPom. They get the benefit of the doubt when performing well in those conferences and winning enough Q1/Q2 games. Where it matters is if your conference isn’t performing at that level and you thus don’t have the opportunities to win enough of those games. Which is where the ACC has been the last two years.

1 question - are we sure that’s a top 200 SOS? Where are you seeing that? The 5 bottom feeders (instead of 2, out of 11 games) feel like they’ll drag our SOS to below last year’s, or at least could — and we had the #233 NC SOS last year.
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Exactly on the comment.

OOC scheduling wouldn't be an issue if the ACC as a whole played in better in OOC games and was ranked higher as a conference. For years the ACC was a top 3 conference, in those days just getting to .500 in the ACC was good enough for an NCAA bid, absent a complete OOC disaster. When L'ville, Notre Dame, GT and FSU and BC all are terrible and lose a ton of OOC games to the likes of Maine, New Hampshire, Tarelton State, Siena, Stetson, Bellarmine and Wright St; winning a conference games alone aren't going to be enough to get an NCAAT bid.

The point is not that WF should schedule a home and home with Gonzaga; just that WF can't play five OOC games against the worst of the worst of college basketball. WF can still play home games against relatively safe opponents, just don't play the worst of the worst. At least not 5 games against the those types of teams.
 
CamLemons said:
If scheduling like that was absurd, people wouldn’t schedule like that after talking thinks over with the conference and the NCAA. You’re only punished for winning if that’s all you schedule (being like 250ish) AND you have no good wins

Spin it this way, if you set yourself up with a pretty difficult OOC there are four ways it can go:

Win in non con and win in league, golden option
Win in non con and lose in league, pretty standard case of “well they played themselves out of the tournament”
Lose in non con and win in league, probably find yourself on the bubble and you’re in god’s hands there of if you actually make it.
Lose in both, done.

You have one good result, 2 bad results, and one coin flip. That is not setting yourself up for success especially if you do not have the pedigree to let people give you the benefit of the doubt.
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The lack of good wins is a problem compounded by the lack of opportunity for good wins in the ACC. So how does a team get more good wins? Schedule fewer sub-300 teams and schedule more teams that have a shot at being good wins. Yes, that comes with more risk of losing, but that's how the game is played.
 
PhDeac said:
Cam, scheduling harder and losing gets more credit than beating bad teams. Losing to sub-300 teams isn't a problem for Wake anymore but scheduling those games hurts the program.
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Not if you don’t win in the league and that’s the big issue! If there were less conference games you would see harder scheduling in this league.
Also it doesn’t give you more credit if you lose! Scheduling App is quite literally the same hit on your resume as losing to Charleston Southern. You just get like 3 extra points on your NC SOS. Is that really worth it?
 
If scheduling decisions are dominated by fear of losing to the Apps of the world, there's no point in trying to be a major conference program.
 
CamLemons said:
Not if you don’t win in the league and that’s the big issue! If there were less conference games you would see harder scheduling in this league.
Also it doesn’t give you more credit if you lose! Scheduling App is quite literally the same hit on your resume as losing to Charleston Southern. You just get like 3 extra points on your NC SOS. Is that really worth it?
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Yes, it is worth it. WF has been down this road before. 12-8 in the ACC 5th in the conference and no NCAAT bid because of too many craptastic OOC games. Again, its not the Charleston Southern game alone. Its scheduling 5 of those games. It just reduces the margin for error for the rest of the schedule. Don't understand how this point is even arguable. Replace NJIT and Delaware State with Queens College and Campbell and it could make a difference. When the committee parses teams for the last few bids, they have advised they look for red flags like a bunch of games against horrid teams. It really isn't that hard to avoid.
 
PhDeac said:
If scheduling decisions are dominated by fear of losing to the Apps of the world, there's no point in trying to be a major conference program.
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it’s not even about losing to App. It genuinely doesn’t move the needle enough in terms of the numbers. Moving up to 150 from 199 isn’t this gigantic jump up the ratings, especially when it’s still a Q4 loss. You’re basically splitting hairs at that point.

You made the point of that Wake was here two years ago and they had a significant worse strength of schedule outside of the conference than what they’re even projected to have right now. You are literally already having more of a cushion than you did that year. That is just math.
 
Having five crappy teams on the schedule is a mistake. They hurt the SOS and they ensure that the Joel will have plenty of empty seats. Schedule more games against top competition home and home. The attendance at the Joel will increase, the penalty for losing will be less and early wins will create a sense of momentum for conference games. Give the fanbase a good reason to attend a home game when the students are gone and the holidays are approaching and they will show up. This is especially true if the Deacs have gone on the road early and have been successful.
 
yea i have to disagree with @CamLemons here

going 5-5 against a tough schedule will go a lot farther than 10-0 against this schedule in this new era of bracketology, and it's better for the players, fans, and programs

and we're also lighting money on fire by paying all of these teams to come to the Joel to lose by 20+ to crowds of hundreds.
 
Can we all agree at least that if we're gonna play these teams, I wanna see cut throat absolute run them off the floor energy for 40 minutes? Margin matters so let's run that shit up. I wanna see last second windmills up 101-44 against Charleston Southern. If you choose to play these teams then you accept that you need to beat the shit out of them rather than "all wins count the same." They don't, so don't let the foot off the gas down the stretch. Sorry walk ons Daddy Forbes needs Damari to hit his 14th three of the game.
 
I saw Duke is playing at Arizona next year in a game that wasn't scheduled by an outside force. I believe it will be their fourth self-scheduled road game in 14 years.
 
CamLemons said:
it’s not even about losing to App. It genuinely doesn’t move the needle enough in terms of the numbers. Moving up to 150 from 199 isn’t this gigantic jump up the ratings, especially when it’s still a Q4 loss. You’re basically splitting hairs at that point.

You made the point of that Wake was here two years ago and they had a significant worse strength of schedule outside of the conference than what they’re even projected to have right now. You are literally already having more of a cushion than you did that year. That is just math.
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We’re talking about moving up to 150 from 350.

And we’re talking about maximizing the impact of wins not being scared of losses. Keep up.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I saw Duke is playing at Arizona next year in a game that wasn't scheduled by an outside force. I believe it will be their fourth self-scheduled road game in 14 years.
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DAMN

Coach scheyerface with the big brass balls !
 
Strickland33 said:
yea i have to disagree with @CamLemons here

going 5-5 against a tough schedule will go a lot farther than 10-0 against this schedule in this new era of bracketology, and it's better for the players, fans, and programs

and we're also lighting money on fire by paying all of these teams to come to the Joel to lose by 20+ to crowds of hundreds.
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Well said. It makes no sense for a program like Wake to be scared to go on the road. A home and home against a team in the #100-150 range goes much further than two games against Delaware State.
 
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