DeacsATS
Sam "Ace" Rothstein
Smart quant guys at my firm ran an epidemiological simulation on the coronavirus.
The quick and dirty was that it is about 2x as contagious as the flu and 30x more deadly (~3% mortality rate).
They ran a bunch of simulations with various inputs, so there are obvious statistical ranges... But that’s at least in the ballpark.
So even worst case, it’s not apocalyptic.
But it’s going to get worse before it gets better... May not peak until March.
The quick and dirty was that it is about 2x as contagious as the flu and 30x more deadly (~3% mortality rate).
They ran a bunch of simulations with various inputs, so there are obvious statistical ranges... But that’s at least in the ballpark.
So even worst case, it’s not apocalyptic.
But it’s going to get worse before it gets better... May not peak until March.