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Jose heading towards NYC

BillBrasky said:
LOL there is nothing more pussified than parents complaining that they have to alter their precious morning schedule to actually take care of their devil spawn. Sorry you couldn't make it 7:30 pilates sweetheart.
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QFP

Is there any doubt that Brasky will be making nearly identical 2&2 posts in 5-7 years?
 
HailToTheDeacons said:
QFP

Is there any doubt that Brasky will be making nearly identical 2&2 posts in 5-7 years?
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Oh the anger and bitterness will certainly intensify, but I don't share the political beliefs that 2&2 does, nor do I walk around with the smug self-importance that many of you do.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Inexplicably, CMS is on a 2-hour delay this morning. This may be worse than any of the (non)snow delays. It was somewhat windy and it rained last night, so surely school needs to be delayed this morning and everyone's schedule gets fucked up. This may be the biggest instance of pussification yet. I have yet to hear any actual reason for it, other than speculation that buses can tip over in the wind, but the wind advisory was only through 4am and it was never even close to being windy enough to tip over a bus.
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Ehh, like 10,000 people are without power and there were quite a few trees down, based on pictures I saw. Not nearly as bad as keeping kids home for a snow day while it's 40 degrees and raining outside.
 
my power in plaza-midwood was out overnight (first time in 6 years we have lost power for anything) and only came back on around 8am. My kids would have been late.

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/...cle_b752803e-96ee-11e7-9c8a-3f6a906b40d4.html

also, here's more evidence that even the edges of this storm deserved some hype. Third highest flood on record in Charleston. (Also, there's a deac pictured in this article...95 or 96 i think)
 
HHI fared pretty well but there was a toll on the animal population. Some minor tree damage from wind and minimized flooding from the rain directly but the ocean, Intercoastal, and tidal marshes all had strong tidal effects that flooded a lot of low lying areas near them. About 1/3 of the island lost power and most have it back now. There had to be close to 250+ dead fish lying around a flooded stretch of a 1/2 mile roadway that had been even higher flooded earlier in the day. Also, had an alligator in my parents' back yard but not a big deal, stay away from them and they'll not bother you. He went back home like an hour later (the neighborhood has about 20 or so identified ones in the lagoons plus babies/new ones). Saved some eel/legless lizard-type creature who got stuck in the gutter of a road while the water was receding.
 
tigerswood said:
Ehh, like 10,000 people are without power and there were quite a few trees down, based on pictures I saw. Not nearly as bad as keeping kids home for a snow day while it's 40 degrees and raining outside.
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DeacDiggler said:
my power in plaza-midwood was out overnight (first time in 6 years we have lost power for anything) and only came back on around 8am. My kids would have been late.
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Why would your kids have been late? Do you drive an electric car or ride an electric bus? Nobody needs to wait for their power to come back on to send their kids to school, one has nothing to do with the other. Oh shit the microwave clock is flashing, now we are safe and can leave for school.
 
Also, CMS is idiotic. No reason for the delay this morning.
 
bym051d said:
I didn't know Florida had armadillos.

People are being told it could be weeks before power is restored in central and southern Florida.
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That's nuts. The older roads in my neighborhood never lost power. The newer ones lost it well after the storm calmed and haven't gotten it back.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Eh, that's like me posting the play-by-play from last night's football game as evidence that Vegas got the move line right as it progressed throughout the game. No shit if you are just constantly updating it to reflect the immediately preceding reality.
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You're underselling Vegas' reliance on the scientific method. Both examples (I'm assuming for Vegas) use computer models informed by scientific research that has observed patterns to make predictions.

Both are inaccurate at times, but the overall forecast is correct. Hurricanes often go where the NOAA's models predict. The result of games is usually what Vegas' models predict.

Not actually sure what you're disagreeing with here?
 
TenaciousKory said:
You're underselling Vegas' reliance on the scientific method. Both examples (I'm assuming for Vegas) use computer models informed by scientific research that has observed patterns to make predictions.

Both are inaccurate at times, but the overall forecast is correct. Hurricanes often go where the NOAA's models predict. The result of games is usually what Vegas' models predict.

Not actually sure what you're disagreeing with here?
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I'm disagreeing that it went where they originally forecast it would go. That graphic you linked was their projections as it updated over time, which obviously takes into account where it actually is at the time of each update, so the margin for error gets smaller and smaller the more time elapses. So yeah, if they keep updating the forecast eventually the forecast is going to overlap with reality because the possible deviations get smaller and smaller over time. Just like if Vegas keeps moving the line throughout the game, by the time you get to the end of the 4th quarter the line is going to match the final score pretty closely.

What they really need to do is overlay their static projection from like last Monday with the ultimate actual path and see if it lines up.
 
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