Ball State Deac
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Forbes appears to be a plus recruiter and is very likable. Obviously, he’s not gotten it done but will be given another year, which is fine.
The Time Has Come: #ForbesIN or #ForbesOUT
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In. We have had 3 straight competitive seasons. That doesn’t cut it for where we want to be, but it represents a major improvement. He has increased our talent level significantly and has developed (yes) that talent. Plus he has the type of personality a Wake coach needs and seems to get the school, which matters a lot. You can’t fire him now.
Next year is critical though, no doubt about it. He will have his first recruiting class as seniors and hopefully a good solid team 7-8 deep, even without Sallis. Gotta make the tourney and in a meaningful way.
Next year is critical though, no doubt about it. He will have his first recruiting class as seniors and hopefully a good solid team 7-8 deep, even without Sallis. Gotta make the tourney and in a meaningful way.
OldGoldBeard
A Sorry WR Like Crabtree
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I don't purport to be an expert, but I tend to think that KenPom is a pretty good indicator of team quality. Based on KP data, which goes back to 1997, here are our team rankings, broken down by coach:
Forbes
27- ‘24
35- ‘22
86- ‘23
175- ’21 (Covid year, only 22 games played)
Manning
36- ‘17
89- ‘18
Dino
24- ‘09
58- ‘10
73- ‘08
Skip
8- ‘05
15- ‘04
21- ‘03
30- ‘02
80- ‘06
102- ‘07
Odom
5- ‘97
10- ‘01
33- ‘00
60- ‘98
62- ‘99
I excluded the (many) seasons under Danny and Bz when we were outside the top 100. My takeaway from that is that, in three full seasons, Forbes has two years that roughly approximate peak performance from Dino and Manning, and are mid-level seasons for Skip and Odom. If those are mid-level seasons from Forbes, rather than his peak, I can live with that. Given that he accomplished it in his first and third full seasons, after walking into worse circumstances than I ever imagined possible for Wake basketball, I am skeptical that this represents his peak, but we’ll see.
That said, I sympathize with the feeling that ’22 and especially ‘24 have been less satisfying and more frustrating than similarly-ranked seasons. Our NIT title year, 2000, was the only other year we were in the 20’s or 30’s and missed the tournament, and we even won the ACC regular season one of those years. I get it. That sucks. The last three games have been miserable.
Is that because of some specific Forbes flaw that bolsters our KP while holding back our resume? I doubt it. He clearly has limitations as an in-game coach: halftime adjustments, reining in the hero ball, and maintaining defensive intensity when the shots aren’t falling all jump out at me. At the same time, he’s clearly not totally inept at the coaching/tactics/strategy side of things. He’s designed two effective offenses with two totally different groups of players with different skill sets.
I also don’t buy that he can’t beat good teams. Some nights you’ve got it, some nights you don’t, and most nights you’re in between. The way we played against Syracuse or UVA or VPI, we would have beaten virtually anyone in the country, unless it was a top-ten team bringing their A+ game. Duke did bring their A-game, and we beat them anyway. In a stronger ACC, those great performances would have been closer wins against impressive teams rather than runaways against nobodies. Randomness plays a far greater role in on-court results than people want to acknowledge in these debates.
Regardless of his in-game coaching, Forbes has clearly demonstrated an ability for spotting talent. I posted this a while ago, but Jeff Borzello on ESPN ranked Hunter Sallis #93 among transfers this year. Neither Miller nor Reid charted in the top 100 or among approximately 50 HM's. Last year, Borzello ranked Appleby #90 and Ituka #99. Carr wasn't in the top 100 or among the ~20 HM's. In 2021, none of our five transfers (Alondes, LaRavia, Walton, Sy, Monsanto) were in either the top 100 or the HM's. Given the choice between the two, I’ll take a talent accumulator like Forbes over an in-game tactician every single time. I don’t need to see Nikita Mescheriakov throwing the ball over the backboard ever again.
I suppose I also—and I promise this is winding down—take a dimmer view of our job than others. We last made the tournament when current high school seniors were 10-11 years old. We were last in the field of 64 when they were 3-4. We last made the Sweet Sixteen before they were born, last made the Final Four before some of their grandparents were born, and last won a title when…
The last time we hit the market with a somewhat attractive job, we hired a P6 coach with a 10-38 conference record. The next time, we got a guy who had one good 11-game stretch at Tulsa. The next time, we were the only game in town, and our candidates were Forbes, HOF Wes, Ryan Odom, and Pat Kelsey. I don’t know who exactly people are expecting us to hire this time around with P6 competition, but Dusty May ain’t walking through that door. I’m not interested in making the moRon move of firing a coach in a fit of pique and then flailing around with Donovan and Izzo before landing on my eighth choice.
Finally, where’s the money coming from? We just got raked over the coals for $15 million for Danny’s buyout. I don’t know the details of Forbes’s contract, and I hope that Currie wasn’t as foolish as his predecessor, but certainly there’s some buyout involved. Mit just forked over $5 million already, and, based on his post-dook comments, seems pretty happy with Forbes and may not be thrilled about financing another buyout and huge salary, which would further diminish our already-dim prospects for attracting a new coach. None of which reflects on Forbes’s ability, but you’d think most people around here would understand that nailing the fire doesn’t matter if you can’t stick the hire.
So, yeah, last night was miserable. I spent all day being depressed and muttering curses at Wake basketball. I’m also willing to be a little bit patient with trying to resurrect our program after where it’s been the last fourteen years.
Forbes
27- ‘24
35- ‘22
86- ‘23
175- ’21 (Covid year, only 22 games played)
Manning
36- ‘17
89- ‘18
Dino
24- ‘09
58- ‘10
73- ‘08
Skip
8- ‘05
15- ‘04
21- ‘03
30- ‘02
80- ‘06
102- ‘07
Odom
5- ‘97
10- ‘01
33- ‘00
60- ‘98
62- ‘99
I excluded the (many) seasons under Danny and Bz when we were outside the top 100. My takeaway from that is that, in three full seasons, Forbes has two years that roughly approximate peak performance from Dino and Manning, and are mid-level seasons for Skip and Odom. If those are mid-level seasons from Forbes, rather than his peak, I can live with that. Given that he accomplished it in his first and third full seasons, after walking into worse circumstances than I ever imagined possible for Wake basketball, I am skeptical that this represents his peak, but we’ll see.
That said, I sympathize with the feeling that ’22 and especially ‘24 have been less satisfying and more frustrating than similarly-ranked seasons. Our NIT title year, 2000, was the only other year we were in the 20’s or 30’s and missed the tournament, and we even won the ACC regular season one of those years. I get it. That sucks. The last three games have been miserable.
Is that because of some specific Forbes flaw that bolsters our KP while holding back our resume? I doubt it. He clearly has limitations as an in-game coach: halftime adjustments, reining in the hero ball, and maintaining defensive intensity when the shots aren’t falling all jump out at me. At the same time, he’s clearly not totally inept at the coaching/tactics/strategy side of things. He’s designed two effective offenses with two totally different groups of players with different skill sets.
I also don’t buy that he can’t beat good teams. Some nights you’ve got it, some nights you don’t, and most nights you’re in between. The way we played against Syracuse or UVA or VPI, we would have beaten virtually anyone in the country, unless it was a top-ten team bringing their A+ game. Duke did bring their A-game, and we beat them anyway. In a stronger ACC, those great performances would have been closer wins against impressive teams rather than runaways against nobodies. Randomness plays a far greater role in on-court results than people want to acknowledge in these debates.
Regardless of his in-game coaching, Forbes has clearly demonstrated an ability for spotting talent. I posted this a while ago, but Jeff Borzello on ESPN ranked Hunter Sallis #93 among transfers this year. Neither Miller nor Reid charted in the top 100 or among approximately 50 HM's. Last year, Borzello ranked Appleby #90 and Ituka #99. Carr wasn't in the top 100 or among the ~20 HM's. In 2021, none of our five transfers (Alondes, LaRavia, Walton, Sy, Monsanto) were in either the top 100 or the HM's. Given the choice between the two, I’ll take a talent accumulator like Forbes over an in-game tactician every single time. I don’t need to see Nikita Mescheriakov throwing the ball over the backboard ever again.
I suppose I also—and I promise this is winding down—take a dimmer view of our job than others. We last made the tournament when current high school seniors were 10-11 years old. We were last in the field of 64 when they were 3-4. We last made the Sweet Sixteen before they were born, last made the Final Four before some of their grandparents were born, and last won a title when…
The last time we hit the market with a somewhat attractive job, we hired a P6 coach with a 10-38 conference record. The next time, we got a guy who had one good 11-game stretch at Tulsa. The next time, we were the only game in town, and our candidates were Forbes, HOF Wes, Ryan Odom, and Pat Kelsey. I don’t know who exactly people are expecting us to hire this time around with P6 competition, but Dusty May ain’t walking through that door. I’m not interested in making the moRon move of firing a coach in a fit of pique and then flailing around with Donovan and Izzo before landing on my eighth choice.
Finally, where’s the money coming from? We just got raked over the coals for $15 million for Danny’s buyout. I don’t know the details of Forbes’s contract, and I hope that Currie wasn’t as foolish as his predecessor, but certainly there’s some buyout involved. Mit just forked over $5 million already, and, based on his post-dook comments, seems pretty happy with Forbes and may not be thrilled about financing another buyout and huge salary, which would further diminish our already-dim prospects for attracting a new coach. None of which reflects on Forbes’s ability, but you’d think most people around here would understand that nailing the fire doesn’t matter if you can’t stick the hire.
So, yeah, last night was miserable. I spent all day being depressed and muttering curses at Wake basketball. I’m also willing to be a little bit patient with trying to resurrect our program after where it’s been the last fourteen years.
centerdeac
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The optics of firing a coach who worked through the year his wife had a stroke and missed the tourney by let's say two games would be mind bogglingly bad. Stop the nonsense.
deacvision7
Mod Emeritus
I don't think many people outside of Wake basketball know that Coach's wife had a stroke.
Your point increases if Wake did fire him, because that could likely leak, but it isn't well known at this point.
centerdeac
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Doesn't change the fact that it would be vicious. And it would be in the first ESPN, Fox, and Cbs articles. Wake would reap what it sowed.
deacvision7
Mod Emeritus
Literally said that in my 2nd line so glad we are in agreement that it wouldn't likely be a good look.
centerdeac
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Sorry.
I’m college basketball out. It’s not that great of a product. If we’re good I’ll watch the games. I went four games this season, which is more than I went to through the entire Gaudio/Bz/Manning era.
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I'm fine if we move on. We know his ceiling. I also am fine with another year due to his personal stuff.
BeachBumDeac
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people in the college basketball world (reporters, coaches, etc.) very well know what's going on with Forbes. And the coaches are the ones where it would matter
There have been multiple national basketball writers who did features on Steve and Johnetta
D
Deleted member 7528
Guest
Firing Forbes a year early won't make up for firing Bz/DM two years too late. There are a lot of bad basketball coaches out there (looking at you, KKIAW). The grass isn't always greener.
TimmyClutch
Well-known member
More people were ok with Griffis starting the entire season than they are with Forbes being fired.....
Henry Chinaski
Steve Lepore
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I’m fine for one more your year given circumstances but anyone who thinks something different will happen next year is a fool. This was the year and we came up wildly small when it mattered.
ChrisTheDeacm89
Well-known member
I've discovered that you can find quite a bit of our old games from the 90's on Youtube. It's always fun to watch the 1995 ACCT Championship game around this time of the year.
On the whole, I'd rather watch us lose to West Virginia on repeat than watch the product that we're putting out there now.
2&2 Slider To Leyritz
Well-known member
ForbesOut. We know what he is at this point. Nice guy, has fun in the portal and sending guys to the G-league, but can't coach his way out of a paper bag when it matters. I'm not sure why we need another season to confirm that. And who cares about optics? The optics are already that we are an irrelevant, trash basketball school. Firing a guy doesn't make the trash stink worse. Frame it as a mutual separation due to his family situation and everyone can walk away smiling.
And fuck KenPom. Clearly, KenPom has jack shit to do with making the tournament. Why does anyone care what our KenPom rankings are or were? They are meaningless, and honestly our fans' continued placating via KenPom are a good reason why we are still in basketball hell going on 15 years.
People want to give credit to Forbes for pulling out of the deep shithole we were in before he got here. The prime reason for said shithole is that Wellman, and then Currie (do not forget that he did it too), let both Bz and Manning stay for YEARS too late when it was obvious they couldn't get it done. Currie is about to do the exact same thing here with Forbes. It's not like when he does get fired his players will stay - they'll hit the portal before the end of the press release. A new coach has to start from scratch either way. There is absolutely no reason to give him another year and delay the inevitable. Rip the band-aid off now. You want to know why the big-boy conferences don't want us? It is because we are pussies as evidenced right here. We think we have some moral obligation to pay a coach millions of dollars to continue to not win. Any real school that actually cared about sports would fire him the day after the forthcoming ACCT exit.
And fuck KenPom. Clearly, KenPom has jack shit to do with making the tournament. Why does anyone care what our KenPom rankings are or were? They are meaningless, and honestly our fans' continued placating via KenPom are a good reason why we are still in basketball hell going on 15 years.
People want to give credit to Forbes for pulling out of the deep shithole we were in before he got here. The prime reason for said shithole is that Wellman, and then Currie (do not forget that he did it too), let both Bz and Manning stay for YEARS too late when it was obvious they couldn't get it done. Currie is about to do the exact same thing here with Forbes. It's not like when he does get fired his players will stay - they'll hit the portal before the end of the press release. A new coach has to start from scratch either way. There is absolutely no reason to give him another year and delay the inevitable. Rip the band-aid off now. You want to know why the big-boy conferences don't want us? It is because we are pussies as evidenced right here. We think we have some moral obligation to pay a coach millions of dollars to continue to not win. Any real school that actually cared about sports would fire him the day after the forthcoming ACCT exit.
DownEastDeac
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Regardless of the scores I'm interested to see how Forbes coaches the next two games. He knows he's losing the fan base, apparently a player or two and possibly the AD and some major booster support, and the same "roll it out, fold my arms and see what happens" approach will make this off-season a very long one for everyone internally and externally who is invested in Wake basketball.
Yikes. That’s a hot take. I’ve never watched that game again. Truly a sad moment in my life (which, yes, probably says something about me).