I excluded the (many) seasons under Danny and Bz when we were outside the top 100. My takeaway from that is that, in three full seasons, Forbes has two years that roughly approximate peak performance from Dino and Manning, and are mid-level seasons for Skip and Odom. If those are mid-level seasons from Forbes, rather than his peak, I can live with that. Given that he accomplished it in his first and third full seasons, after walking into worse circumstances than I ever imagined possible for Wake basketball, I am skeptical that this represents his peak, but we’ll see.
That said, I sympathize with the feeling that ’22 and especially ‘24 have been less satisfying and more frustrating than similarly-ranked seasons. Our NIT title year, 2000, was the only other year we were in the 20’s or 30’s and missed the tournament, and we even won the ACC regular season one of those years. I get it. That sucks. The last three games have been miserable.
Is that because of some specific Forbes flaw that bolsters our KP while holding back our resume? I doubt it. He clearly has limitations as an in-game coach: halftime adjustments, reining in the hero ball, and maintaining defensive intensity when the shots aren’t falling all jump out at me. At the same time, he’s clearly not totally inept at the coaching/tactics/strategy side of things. He’s designed two effective offenses with two totally different groups of players with different skill sets.
I also don’t buy that he can’t beat good teams. Some nights you’ve got it, some nights you don’t, and most nights you’re in between. The way we played against Syracuse or UVA or VPI, we would have beaten virtually anyone in the country, unless it was a top-ten team bringing their A+ game. Duke did bring their A-game, and we beat them anyway. In a stronger ACC, those great performances would have been closer wins against impressive teams rather than runaways against nobodies. Randomness plays a far greater role in on-court results than people want to acknowledge in these debates.
Regardless of his in-game coaching, Forbes has clearly demonstrated an ability for spotting talent. I posted this a while ago, but Jeff Borzello on ESPN ranked Hunter Sallis #93 among transfers this year. Neither Miller nor Reid charted in the top 100 or among approximately 50 HM's. Last year, Borzello ranked Appleby #90 and Ituka #99. Carr wasn't in the top 100 or among the ~20 HM's. In 2021, none of our five transfers (Alondes, LaRavia, Walton, Sy, Monsanto) were in either the top 100 or the HM's. Given the choice between the two, I’ll take a talent accumulator like Forbes over an in-game tactician every single time. I don’t need to see Nikita Mescheriakov throwing the ball over the backboard ever again.
I suppose I also—and I promise this is winding down—take a dimmer view of our job than others. We last made the tournament when current high school seniors were 10-11 years old. We were last in the field of 64 when they were 3-4. We last made the Sweet Sixteen before they were born, last made the Final Four before some of their grandparents were born, and last won a title when…
The last time we hit the market with a somewhat attractive job, we hired a P6 coach with a 10-38 conference record. The next time, we got a guy who had one good 11-game stretch at Tulsa. The next time, we were the only game in town, and our candidates were Forbes, HOF Wes, Ryan Odom, and Pat Kelsey. I don’t know who exactly people are expecting us to hire this time around with P6 competition, but Dusty May ain’t walking through that door. I’m not interested in making the moRon move of firing a coach in a fit of pique and then flailing around with Donovan and Izzo before landing on my eighth choice.
Finally, where’s the money coming from? We just got raked over the coals for $15 million for Danny’s buyout. I don’t know the details of Forbes’s contract, and I hope that Currie wasn’t as foolish as his predecessor, but certainly there’s some buyout involved. Mit just forked over $5 million already, and, based on his post-dook comments, seems pretty happy with Forbes and may not be thrilled about financing another buyout and huge salary, which would further diminish our already-dim prospects for attracting a new coach. None of which reflects on Forbes’s ability, but you’d think most people around here would understand that nailing the fire doesn’t matter if you can’t stick the hire.
So, yeah, last night was miserable. I spent all day being depressed and muttering curses at Wake basketball. I’m also willing to be a little bit patient with trying to resurrect our program after where it’s been the last fourteen years.